New Urbanization Comprehensive Level Measurement Based On Principal Component Analysis And Grey Prediction

As the only way of modernization,urbanization is an major Power source for expanding market demand and stimulating economic growth,and it is also an major livelihood project.Since 1978,with the continuous strengthening of China’s economic strength,the urbanization level has been further improved.The early urbanization focused too much on economic upgrading and the increase of urban population ratio,which made the urban land space expand rapidly and the urban population ratio continue to rise.This superficial rapid development model can’t truly reflect the urbanization development level.The imbalance between land urbanization and population urbanization,the deterioration of urban ecological environment and other problems followed.In view of the emergence of urbanization problems,the new urbanization concept came into being.New urbanization is different from traditional urbanization,emphasizing that people-oriented is the core of urbanization,improving the quality of urbanization is the key to development,breaking the dual structure,coordinating the sustainable development of urban and rural areas,and realizing common prosperity.On the basis of domestic and foreign scholars’ the research of urbanization,this study comprehensively analyzes the construction situation of Hunan Province in recent years with their own understanding of urbanization,and constructs an index evaluation system of Hunan’s new urbanization development level from seven aspects: economic development level,population urbanization,industrial structure,infrastructure,education and culture,environment and pollution control.Evaluate the situation of Hunan Province by using relevant methods,and finally the principal component scores of each prefecture-level city in each year,the difference of time and space scores of each prefecture-level city and the total score.The results are analyzed and future urbanization process of Hunan Province was predicted by using grey prediction model-GM model.The final analysis shows that there are still some drawbacks: in 2010,the working population was biased towards rural areas,but with the development of time,the coordination between urbanization and industrialization reached its peak around 2014;Since then,by 2019,more and more working people have gathered in urban areas,and there may be excessive urbanization.The coordination between urbanization and industrialization began to decline,showing signs of transformation from urbanization slightly lagging behind industrialization to urbanization faster than industrialization.Although the comprehensive scores of new urbanization in all prefecture-level cities in Hunan Province increased steadily from 2011 to2018,the overall urbanization development level was not high,and each city’s new urbanization development had its own shortcomings in different aspects.The overall industrial structure score was not high,the regional new urbanization development level was obviously different,and the regional gap tended to widen.The rapid development of urban agglomerations had a weak radiation driving effect on areas located in the west.Finally,according to the analysis results,the corresponding countermeasures are put forward.