A Research On The Calculation Of Direct Energy Rebound Effect In China’s Road Transportation

As a leading and basic industry in the national economic structure,transportation industry is not only one of the major energy consumption industries in China,but also one of the industries where the government focuses on promoting energy-saving and emission reduction measures.Government departments often adopt energy-saving policies to improve technology and energy efficiency,but historical data show that its effectiveness may be affected by the rebound effect.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the energy rebound effect of China’s transportation industry to evaluate the actual energy saving degree of energy efficiency.Firstly,this paper analyzes the mechanism of direct energy rebound effect in China’s transportation from a theoretical perspective.Then,according to the calculation method of direct rebound effect,this paper takes China’s road transportation industry as the research object,and makes mean regression model to analyze the direct energy rebound effect of China’s road transportation industry based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2016.The results reveal that the direct rebound effect does exist in China’s road transportation industry,and in the whole country,the short-term average direct rebound effects is 22.67%,and the long term is 53.45%.Secondly,this paper uses dynamic panel quantile regression method to explore the trend of energy rebound effect with the change of transportation service demand,and makes a comparative analysis of the direct energy rebound effect in road transportation industry in different area of China.The empirical results show that,with the increasing turnover,the direct rebound effect for road transport in central and eastern China tends to decrease,increase and then decrease again,whereas that in western China decreases and then increases.As a result,when implementing energy efficiency policy in road transport sector,the effectiveness of energy conservation in western China proves much better than that in central China.However,with the continuous improvement of transport demand,the energy-saving effect in the western region may become worse in the future,while the rebound effect in the eastern and central regions will gradually decline,and even reach the state of "super energy-saving".It can be seen that,according to different natural resources and economic development,the implementation of energy efficiency policies needs to be treated differently in different regions,so that it can improve the compatibility of policies and regional characteristics.Finally,Based on the current situation of energy consumption in China’s road transportation industry and empirical research results,this paper proposes to improve the transportation infrastructure according to local conditions and regional characteristics,so that it can provide theoretical guidance for Chinese government to formulate more effective energy conservation policies.