Research On The Effect Of Fiscal And Tax Policy Of Wind Power Industry Based On Dynamic CGE Model

Energy has provided an important impetus to the rapid development of society and economy.However,the imbalance of energy endowment and energy shortage caused by continuous high energy consumption have become increasingly severe.The pressure of greenhouse gas emissions on the environment is increasing,and the ecological environment is facing great challenges.In order to promote the energy revolution and improve environmental conditions,China proposes to increase the proportion of nonfossil energy consumption to 15%,and reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP to 18%by 2020.Under this situation,the cultivation and development of clean energy and related industries is imperative.As China is rich in wind energy resources,and the geographical location and topography are well distributed,in recent years,the government has successively introduced a number of incentive policies from both sides of supply and demand to support and promote the development of wind power industry.Among them,production-side policies include wind power value-added tax and income tax preferential policies,and consumer-side policies include wind power feed-in tariff subsidies.The propose of a series of policies is conducive to promoting wind power production and consumption,as well as the upgrading of energy structure.But at the same time,these policies also have some negative impacts on the national economy,such as the reduction of government revenue and the rupture of the corporate capital chain caused by subsidy arrears.This article compiles the macro and micro social accounting matrix of wind power energy based on the 2017 input-output table,then builds a dynamic CGE model of wind power energy.Through a comprehensive analysis of the positive and negative effects brought about by the implementation of the production-side and consumption-side policy simulations of the wind power industry,this paper will explore a combination of wind power industry policies which can maximize the benefits of the national economy.This paper mainly includes the following aspects: First,this paper sorts out the literature of fiscal and taxation policies on wind power industry over the years,and explores the research focus of previous studies,then clarifies the research ideas and directions of this article;Second,according to the 2017 Input-Output Table,2018 China Statistical Yearbook,2019 China Statistical Yearbook,2018 China Fiscal Yearbook and other related data,this paper compiles the macro social accounting matrix.And on this basis,split and merge the departments to obtain a wind power energy micro-social accounting matrix containing a total of 33 accounts.Among them,the production activity accounts include 6 non-energy sectors(agriculture,non-energy mining,processing and manufacturing,construction,transportation,and other service industries)and 6 energy sectors(coal,oil,natural gas extraction,thermal power And heat,wind power,and other clean energy production and supply),the commodity accounts are divided in the same way as production activity accounts;Third,based on the wind power energy micro-social accounting matrix,this paper sets the function equations of production module,trade module,host mechanism module,policy module,balanced closed module,dynamic module,and macro index module.Among them,the dynamic module realizes the dynamics of the model through labor growth and capital accumulation,and the policy module simulates changes in wind power production and sales prices;Fourth,this paper refers to the related studies to select alternative elastic parameters,calibrate and estimate the remaining parameters based on the basic social accounting matrix and functional equation.Then uses GAMS program to solve the model,and judge the stability and reliability of the model through sensitivity,validity,and accuracy tests;Finally,this paper simulates the benchmark policy S0(Value-added tax halved,Income tax incentives,High feed-in tariff subsidies,policies adopted in 2017),S1(Value-added tax halved,Income tax incentives,Low feed-in tariff subsidies),S2(Value-added tax halved,None income tax incentives,High feed-in tariff subsidies),S3(Value-added tax halved,None income tax incentives,Low feed-in tariff subsidies),S4(None value-added tax incentives,Income tax incentives,High feed-in tariff subsidies),S5(None value-added tax incentives,Income tax incentives,Low feed-in tariff subsidies),S6(None value-added tax incentives,None income tax incentives,High feed-in tariff subsidies),S7(None value-added tax incentives,None income tax incentives,Low feed-in tariff subsidies).By comparing with the benchmark policy S0,analyze changes in macroeconomic indicators,industrial structure,carbon emissions,and residents’ welfare under various policy combinations,so as to comprehensively evaluate policy effects and design the optimal wind power industry policy.The research results show that:(1)While adopting production-side tax preferential policies,moderately reduce the subsidies on the consumption-side of the wind power industry has a positive effect on the Real GDP,Income and Savings,and Total Enterprise Investment,but is not conducive to reducing the Trade surplus;(2)Production-side policies will help optimize the energy production structure and consumption structure,while a high consumption-side subsidies is not conducive to the green transformation of the energy structure;(3)While adopting production-side tax preferential policies,moderately reduce the subsidies on the consumption-side of the wind power industry is most conducive to the low-carbon sustainable development;(4)Appropriately reducing consumption-side subsidies of wind power industry is conducive to improve the welfare of residents,and the green upgrading of resident’s energy consumption structure;(5)The S1 policy is the most ideal,because this policy can not only achieve the improvement of resident’s welfare and the macro economy,but also optimize the resident’s energy consumption structure.Furthermore,this policy can also maximize the role of energy saving.Although the policy is not helpful to the reduction of trade surplus,it can maximize the national economic benefits among all the policies set in this article.Based on the research conclusions,the policy enlightenments are as follows:(1)Moderately reducing the standard of wind power tariff surcharge is more helpful to the improvement of national economic;(2)The government should consider promoting and implementing the production-side preferential tax policy system of the wind power industry model for the entire clean energy industry to guide the sustainable and healthy development of the clean energy industry;(3)The government should seize the opportunities brought about by the favorable policies of the wind power industry,adopting proactive energy-saving strategies,and accelerating the energy revolution.The innovations include the following points:(1)This paper constructs a dynamic CGE model of wind power energy for policy simulation,and conducts quantitative research on the effects of fiscal and taxation policies in the wind power industry;(2)This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis from the perspectives of production-side and the consumption-side,and conducts a more specific study of the impact of wind power industry’s single and combined policies on macroeconomics,industrial structure,carbon emission reduction of energy consumption,and residents’ welfare;(3)This paper takes the wind power production price as the entry point for the impact of the production-side policy changes,calculates the production price when a certain link changes according to the proportion of each link in the total cost.And also,this paper takes the wind power sales price as the entry point for the impact of the consumption-side policy changes,and embed the feed-in tariff subsidy as a restrictive condition in the policy module.