The Research On The Effects Evaluation And Policy Optimization Of The New-energy Subsidy Policy

The development of new energy vehicles can relieve the pressure of energy use and environmental protection,can promote the transformation and upgrading of new energy vehicle industry,and can enhance the international competitiveness and influence of China's automobiles.China's new energy automobile industry has been developed by leaps and bounds under the support of subsidy policy.But behind the huge number of the vigorous development of the new energy automobile industry,the new energy vehicle subsidy policy not only shows the trend of decreasing grade year by year in the process of implementation,but also produces the problem that the new energy vehicle industry is over-dependent on the subsidy policy and lacks autonomy.And the new energy vehicle industry has "low value-added","low utilization" and "low-end service" of the "three low" problem,seriously hindering the new energy vehicle industry high-quality,healthy development of the goal.Therefore,this paper takes the effect of subsidy policy in the demand side and supply side as the starting point,analyzes the influence of the "structural" characteristics of subsidy policy on the demand of different models of consumers and the effect of subsidy slope on the technical efficiency of enterprises,so as to evaluate the effect of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy comprehensively.And combined with the current situation of new energy vehicle subsidy policy supervision,the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supervision put forward corresponding recommendations.The main content of this article is as follows:1.The combing and overall characteristics of the various stages of the evolution of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy.We comb through the relevant literature,analyze the evolution process of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy,comb the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in stages according to the different stages of policy objectives,and summarize the structural adjustment of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy and the two general characteristics of subsidy de-slope.2.Empirical test of the impact of the "structural characteristics" of the subsidy policy on the demand of different models of consumers.Breaking through the "total" understanding angle of the subsidy policy "there" and "no",this paper uses the monthly micro data released from January 2017 to December 2018,uses the broad tendency matching method,explores the influence of different subsidy intensity on the demand of different models from the subsidy policy itself,so as to judge the optimal subsidy interval.To determine the optimal subsidy intensity,so as to evaluate the rationality and practical effect of the current subsidy policy.3.The "subsidy retreat" of the subsidy policy is an empirical test of the impact of the improvement of enterprise technology efficiency.Against the background of the gradual decline of new energy vehicle subsidy,this paper uses the micro-data of pure electric passenger vehicle output of 63 enterprises from 2018 to April 2019,and uses the heterogeneous random cutting-edge model to measure the technical efficiency of each enterprise.Based on the breakpoint regression method,the impact of subsidy degreage policy after the transition period of subsidy in 2018 is analyzed.Using the empirical analysis results,this paper explores the effect of subsidy degreasing on the technological progress of enterprises,and evaluates the overall feasibility and practical effect of subsidy policy degreasing.4.Recommendations for the optimization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles.Based on the implementation status quo and outstanding problems of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy,combined with the results of the evaluation of the effect of the subsidy policy,the optimization proposal of the subsidy policy is put forward from the aspects of subsidy de-slope policy,the structure,orientation and means of subsidy policy.There are three possible points of innovation in this article:1.Based on the two characteristics of the subsidy policy's structural and subsidy degreasing,the effect evaluation of the subsidy policy is carried out.Based on the two characteristics of policy structure and subsidy degreversion,this paper analyzes the influence of subsidy policy intensity on the demand of different models of consumers,and the effect and effect of policy withdrawal on the technical efficiency of new energy vehicle enterprises,so as to evaluate the effect of subsidy policy.2.The effect of subsidy policy of new energy vehicles is empirically tested and the average technical efficiency of the new energy vehicle industry is measured.This paper uses the average price data of domestic pure electric vehicles,the sales data of different models of vehicles of various manufacturers,and the monthly microdata of purchasing and producing domestic pure electric vehicle manufacturers to carry out empirical tests,and measures the average technical efficiency of the new energy vehicle industry.3.The problem of endogenous problems and the volatility of technology efficiency between new energy vehicle data is overcome by using the generalized tendency matching method and heterogeneous random frontier model.The broad-based tendency matching method used in this paper overcomes the corresponding endogenous problems in the measurement model which involve the price of new energy vehicles,market share and intra-group market share.In addition,the heterogeneous random frontier model used in this paper takes into account the factors of technology efficiency volatility and overcomes the defects of the partial measurement method that neglects the volatility of technological efficiency in the past.