Research On Urban Resilience Assessment Based On The Perspective Of Multi-hazard Major Disaster Risk

Under the global climate change and urbanization,Disaster risk has become an important factor restricting urban safety and sustainable development.Cities are a complex and huge system that integrates society,economy,ecological environment,and infrastructure.They have become a major disaster risk area recognized by the international community.The single-hazard risk assessment can no longer meet the requirements of urban comprehensive disaster risk prevention.Multi-hazard comprehensive risk research has become a powerful measure to effectively prevent comprehensive risks and achieve regional sustainable development.As a new idea of urban risk management,it not only focuses on disaster response,but also emphasizes disaster adaptation.Obviously,resilience city research based on the perspective of disaster risk is the only way to reduce urban disaster risks and achieve green and sustainable urban development.It is also a hot issue in the field of urban planning and practice.This research uses 267 prefecture-level cities as the research unit.Based on the risk assessment of four major man-made disasters and six major natural disasters in China,comprehensive resilient city the four development stages,the five-dimensional elements of city composition,and the seven quality characteristics of resilient cities are used to construct a set of urban resilience evaluation index systems that are in line with China’s national conditions.This study carried out a study on the characteristics of temporal and spatial differentiation and discussion of influencing factors on the urban resilience index of China’s prefecture-level cities and eight major economic regions in 2010,2015,and 2017.Based on the above research results,by constructing a “risk-resilience” matrix,my country’s cities are further divided into four categories:“low risk-high resilience”,“high risk-high resilience”,“low risk-low resilience”,and“high risk-low resilience”.We selected Harbin in the Northeast Economic Zone,Hangzhou in the Eastern Economic Zone,Wuhan in the Central Economic Zone,and Chongqing in the Western Economic Zone as typical cities for case analysis to summarize the improvement path of urban resilience in my country’s major economic zones.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of major urban disasters across the country and the risk assessment results show that the frequency of major man-made disasters in my country shows a trend of declining fluctuations,and the frequency of natural disasters shows a trend of fluctuations,showing agglomeration characteristics in space.High-risk areas disasters are mainly distributed in Chongqing,Tianjin,Qujing,and Yichun.In addition to the above areas,high-risk areas for major natural disasters in my country are also located in Liupanshui,Linfen,Jixi and Dongying.Great attention should be given to improving the comprehensive disaster prevention,mitigation and disaster relief management capacity building so as to reduce disaster losses.(2)The research results on the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of the urban resilience index show that my country’s urban resilience index shows a trend of rising volatility.The absolute difference has expanded and the relative difference has shrunk.The resilience of urban organization and management and the resilience of the ecological environment have gradually increased in the process of urban resilience construction.On the whole,my country’s cities are still dominated by medium and low resilience cities.The spatial differentiation of urban resilience characteristics is obvious.From a regional perspective,the resilience level of cities in coastal economic zones is significantly higher than that in the Midwest and Northeast.forming a pattern of "high in the east and low in the west".In addition,Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen are the three cities with the highest resilience index in my country,and their urban resilience governance level can provide reference for other cities.(3)The results of the assessment of China’s resilient cities based on the disaster risk perspective show that the level of urban resilience in my country is mainly affected by the level of urban public service,talent innovation,ecological environment and urban infrastructure.The overall level of urban resilience in my country is low.The main types of cities are "low risk-low resilience" cities,accounting for 72.2%;6.8% of the cities belong to the "high-risk-low resilience" type.Such as Qujing,Liupanshui,Luliang,Luoyang,etc.;18.8% of the cities belong to the "low risk-high resilience" type,such as my country’s first-tier developed cities such as Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen.(4)The design results of the improvement path of China’s resilient cities show that my country’s “high risk-high resilience” cities mainly include Harbin,Hangzhou,Tianjin,Chongqing,Chengdu and Guiyang,and are inspired by the governance experience of such cities.Paths to improve urban resilience in my country: Form a large-scale regional linkage pattern dominated by core high-resilience city clusters and supplemented by peripheral city clusters,and strengthen the integrated development of regional transportation,industry,and education;Build a strong foundation with green mountains and green waters to promote the development of characteristic and high-tech enterprises with a good business environment;Rely on "Internet","big data","artificial intelligence",to enhance the digital transformation and development of cities,and promote low-carbon,green and circular development of cities;With cloud computing technology as the cornerstone,build a real-time,dynamic,all-weather multi-hazard comprehensive risk monitoring,assessment,forecast,and early warning "intelligent" platform to ensure people’s safety.