Resource Potential Of Traction Batteries For New Energy Vehicles Based On Material Stock Analysis

Under the dual constraints of environmental capacity and energy shortage,new energy vehicles（NEVs）,especially electric vehicles（EVs）,are developing rapidly in China.Annual sales of electric vehicles in China are expected to exceed 15.2 million by 2030,according to the Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.After decommissioning,EVBs can be used for echelon utilization or resource utilization to recover nickel,cobalt,manganese,lithium and other recycled metals and plastics and other secondary resources.In the context of the continuous growth of the number of new energy vehicles in China,EVBs in use is forming a huge resource inventory.In this context,the research on China’s new energy vehicle power battery resource stock and potential environmental benefits is of great practical significance for revealing the dynamic characteristics of EVBs resource potential and resource availability,as well as realizing the sustainable management of“urban minerals”.This study mainly carried out the following aspects:（1）Based on the analysis of the life cycle process and material flow characteristics of power battery,a calculation method of EVBs resource stock considering the step utilization was established.The calculation results show that from 2009 to 2019,the consumption of NMC and LFP in China has maintained a rapid growth,while the consumption of lithium manganese acid battery is relatively small.The amount of EVBs contains a huge resource stock,including nickel,cobalt,manganese,lithium,copper,aluminum,iron,plastic and other8 major resources stock increased from 0.80 thousand tons in 2009 to 1.21 million tons in2019.From the point of view of the use stage and battery type of the resource stock,the current resources in use mainly exist in the primary use stage and the EVBs of NMC and LFP.（2）According to the development trend of China’s EVs market and the development direction of EVBs technology,sets the baseline scenario,NMC-dominated scenario and the iron LFP-dominated scenario to simulate and analyze the EVBs resource stock of new energy vehicles in 2020-2030.It is estimated that by 2030,the stock of resources in use in EVBs under the three scenarios will reach 22.67 million tons,25.18 million tons and 20.16 million tons respectively.In the three scenarios,there is little difference in the proportion of resource stock in the first use stage and the second use stage,but the proportion in the three types of EVBs is closely related to the development direction of EVBs technology in the corresponding scenarios.（3）Based on the EVBs resource stock in use,combined with the recycling rate of renewable resources and the energy consumption,material consumption and global warming potential（GWP）coefficient of the corresponding primary resource production process,the renewable resource potential value of the resource stock in use and the energy saving,material saving and carbon emission reduction benefits brought by it were calculated.The results showed in 2019,the resource potential of the eight materials in the EVBs is 1.15million tons.If the renewable utilization is made,the energy consumption of 1.55×10¹¹MJ,the material consumption of 1.37×10⁶kg antimony equivalent and the greenhouse gas emission of 2.05×10¹⁰kg CO₂-eq can be avoided in total.By 2030,the renewable resource potential under the baseline scenario,the ternary lithium battery dominant scenario and the iron phosphate lithium battery dominant scenario can reach 21.87 million tons,24.35 million tons and 19.39 million tons respectively,with significant energy saving,material saving and carbon emission reduction benefits.Look from the contribution source of environmental benefit,the energy saving benefits are mainly from recycled nickel and aluminum,the energy consumption reduction benefits are mainly from recycled nickel and copper,and the carbon emission reduction benefits are mainly from recycled plastics and recycled nickel.（4）According to the EVBs resource stock and resource potential,further build the EVBs resource availability analysis model.The results show that the differences in the availability of various EVBs resources under different scenarios are closely related to the resource stock and resource utilization value.The availability of nickel,cobalt and manganese resources under the three scenarios has obvious advantages,and the available price is far lower than the market price,so there will be no unavailability in the short term.The available price of iron is higher than the market price,and its resource stock is in a state of unavailability.In general,the resource availability of EVBs in the baseline scenario and the NMC-dominated scenario is generally good,while the resource availability in the LFP-dominated scenario is poor.（5）Based on the research results,countermeasures and suggestions for sustainable resource management of EVBs are proposed from three dimensions of material flow optimization,resource efficiency regulation and management system design:develop the stock market of power batteries,and build a“inventor-flow”closed-loop industrial chain of resources;Improve the efficiency of EVBs renewable resources,extend the cascade utilization range;Establish power battery stock control mechanism based on EPR,innovate power battery recycling system,and further improve the whole life cycle management system.In summary,this paper adopts the“bottom-up”dynamic material flow analysis method to realize the systematic analysis of China’s EVBs resource stock,and carries out quantitative research on the resource potential,environmental benefits and resource availability based on the resource stock.The research results provide data support for predicting the potential of recycling of recycled materials and the whole life cycle management of EVBs after large-scale decommissioning in the future,which has certain scientific value and practical significance.