Research On Risk Assessment And Early Warning Of Total Cost Of Real Estate Enterprise Park Construction

The development of China’s real estate market has so far been affected by national policies and changes in the supply and demand chain of the market.The development and construction of residential and commercial buildings is no longer the development trend of real estate companies.Real estate developers responded to the call of the state under policy control to transform and expand industrial real estate.Compared with the development and construction of traditional real estate projects,the capital turnover period in the development and construction of industrial parks is long,and the types of industrial products are diversified,which increases the difficulty of cost control.The effective way to solve this problem is to establish cost management systems for different industrial parks,strengthen cost management throughout the entire process,and make full use of funds to achieve effective cost management throughout the entire process of park construction.Starting from the theory of cost risk management,this article discusses the whole process cost risk assessment and early warning of the park from the following three aspects:First,based on the WBS-CBS-RBS risk decomposition structure,31 cost risk factors were identified and screened out,and a real estate enterprise park construction whole process cost risk evaluation index system composed of 6 first-level evaluation indicators and 31 second-level evaluation indicators was established.Secondly,it combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and entropy method to combine weighting of risk assessment indicators,determine the degree of influence of each risk factor on the total cost of park construction,and introduce the concept of Vague set interval to improve the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,which will affect the entire process of park construction The cost risk level is evaluated and the cost risk situation of the park project is judged.Finally,according to the cost risk early warning theory,the zone of cost risk level is divided,and early warning measures are taken for the cost risk factors in the middle to high level risk range,and the Monte Carlo cost prediction model based on EXCLE is established.Actual cases are selected to predict and simulate the probability of cost overruns.The simulation results verify the accuracy and feasibility of the risk assessment and early warning model.This paper finally obtains the evaluation index system by analyzing the cost risk in the whole process of park construction,evaluates and warns the cost risk of the park,predicts the probability of cost overruns in the whole process of park construction,and controls the risk of cost overruns in the park construction.It is hoped that in future studies,the risk assessment index system can be more improved,the entire process cost of park construction can be predicted more accurately,and a higher level of cost risk management of the entire process of park construction can be completed.