Research On Life Cycle Cost Risk Management Of Construction Projects

After decades of rapid development in the construction industry,the current residential construction projects have entered the imprisonment period.At this time,as a major builder of large-scale residential projects,real estate companies do not change their traditional management concepts that focus on marketing and do not pay attention to costs.Will be eliminated by the market.The most effective way for real estate companies to respond to markets and policies is to strengthen cost management,achieve effective use of funds,avoid unnecessary expenditures,and achieve effective cost management.Therefore,the cost risk management of construction projects and the rational use of resources will not only provide a theoretical basis for real estate companies,but also make some contribution to the development of the national economy.The article discusses the life cycle cost risk of construction projects from the following three aspects.A three-dimensional cost-risk factor identification model based on WBS-CBS-RBS was created.The model divided the life-cycle cost risk management of the project into five stages,and the cost components of each stage were decomposed to identify 33 risk factors,thereby constructing Cost risk evaluation indicator system.The IAHP is introduced to weight the identified risk factors,and a cost risk assessment model is established based on the Vague set theory to evaluate the overall risk level of the life cycle cost of the construction project.The Monte Carlo theory based on MATLAB and EXCEL was used to conduct risk analysis on the cost components of the construction-commissioning phase where capital flows are more intensive,in order to calculate the probability of exceeding the most probable cost.Based on the above basic theory,risk identification,risk assessment,and risk control simulation calculations were conducted for the first phase of the C District project in Xincheng District,Xinyang City,Xinyang.Validation of construction project life-cycle cost risk identification model,risk assessment model,risk control model applicability and scientific rationality.