Research On The Prosperity Index Of Road Freight Market In Hubei Province

In recent years,with the rapid economic development of Hubei Province,the demand for road transport from all walks of life is increasing.The development of the road freight market is of great significance to meet the needs of the people in production and lifes and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the economy.In Hubei Province,effective monitoring of the road freight market has not yet been achieved.Under this background,compiling the road freight market prosperity index will make us to grasp the law of market change in time,promote the positive development of the road freight market,and make it better to serve the economy society.This dissertation studies the prosperity index of the road freight market in Hubei Province,focusing on the construction of the prosperity index system,the compilation of the prosperity index and the monitoring and warning of the prosperity.Firstly,based on the prosperity status of the road freight market in Hubei Province and the factors affecting the development of the road freight market,13 indicators were selected from the four aspects that are the road freight industry,the industries closely related to the road freight industry,the competitive industry and the macro-economy to construct the prosperity index system of the road freight market in Hubei Province.Secondly,construct "three section three variables" model of the Spring Festival,and combined it with X-12-ARIMA,to seasonally adjusted index,calculate the benchmark volatility index as the benchmark indicator,and measure the seasonally adjusted prosperity indicators and benchmark indicator of time-delay relationship,the indicators could be divided into leading,consistent,and lagging indicators,the diffusion index method,the composite index method and the prosperity signal model method are used to compile the prosperity diffusion index,the prosperity composite index and the comprehensive warning index respectively,which together constitute the road freight market prosperity index.Finally,a prosperity monitoring and early warning system is established,which includes monitoring warning and forecasting warning,the monitoring warning is to use the prosperity signal model method to synthesize the early-warning indicators into a comprehensive early-warning index and divide it into a prosperous area to scientifically judge the current hot and cold development of the road freight market,the forecasting warning is to use the ARIMA model to predict the consistent composite index to determine the future short-term trend of the market.The result of the index compilation shows that from 2016 to 2019,the road freight market in Hubei Province showed a trend of increasing fluctuation,the market experienced a development process of "cold"--"normal"--"hot",and the road freight market will continue to maintain a good development trend in the short term in 2020.Based on the compilation results,the dissertation puts forward some suggestions to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the road freight market from the perspective of road transport administration and enterprises.Through in-depth research on the theory and method of the compilation of the prosperity index,this dissertation constructs the road freight market prosperity indicators system in Hubei Province,compiles the prosperity index of the road freight market,and establishes a prosperity monitoring and early warning system.The dissertation provides a theoretical basis for the future compilation of the prosperity index of the road freight market in Hubei Province,and provides a certain reference for the scientific decision-making of road transport administration and enterprises.