The Study Of Establishing The System Of Integrated Transport Market Prosperity Index

Well-developed transportation is one of the indicators of a modern country. The comprehensive transportation advocated by our country is backboned by railways, based on highways, fully utilizes waterborne transport which includes inland rivers, coastal shipping and ocean shipping, and develops aviation in an active way. At present, the Ministry of Railway has been taken in by Ministry of Communication; Furthermore, the comprehensive transportation system crossing East and West, connecting South and North, and including different modes of water, land and air has already been formed preliminarily. As the comprehensive transportation market is influenced by economic situations and many other factors, the market reveals much volatility. Hence, it is essential to construct an Index of Prosperity Indicator System of the Comprehensive Transportation Market, in order to monitor the present operation in transportation industry and provide early warming, which is vital to promote the development of the industry and the construction of the comprehensive system.The paper first introduces the method of establishment of proliferation index and composition index;24indicators stemmed from four angels, i.e. production, supply, benefit and macro economy are chosen based on the actual situation in the comprehensive transportation market; all the indexes are classified into Beforehand Indicators, Simultaneous Indicators and Lagged Indicators by X-11Season Adjustment by Eviews, Time Lag Correlation Analysis, K-L Information Method, Factor Analysis; Factor Analysis is used to calculate the weight of all indexes; and Prosperity Indicator System of the Comprehensive Transportation Market is established and examined by cases. Simultaneous Indicators are chosen to be alarm indicators and alarm lights are worked out by dividing the bounds utilizing mathematic statistics, and results of the system are compared with China Shipping Market Alarm Lights System. Finally, ARMA is used as the trend spreading method, which can predict the prosperity of the future market to some degree. The Index of Prosperity of Comprehensive Transportation Market System established can monitor the volatility of the market in a sense and act as an alarm to provide some guidance for the supervisors of the industry.