Research On The Prosperity Index System And Early Warning System Of Roed Freight Transportation In Chongqing

The road freight industry bears 80% of my country’s freight transport capacity and has an irreplaceable position and role in the comprehensive transportation system.In order to improve the overall transportation efficiency,the Standing Committee of the State Council in 2018 plans to adjust the transportation structure to reduce the volume of road freight and increase the volume of other transportation methods.The main direction of the promotion of "revolution to iron" and "revolution to water" of bulk goods is to compete in the road freight market.The pattern will be quickly transformed,in order to facilitate decision makers to predict and grasp the changing situation of the road freight market in a timely manner,and make accurate market changes judgments and response strategies.The compilation of the road freight industry prosperity index to monitor and warn the current development of the road freight industry is not only beneficial to the development of the road freight industry,but also plays an important role in the promotion of the integrated transportation system.To this end,the thesis has carried out research on the compilation of the road freight forwarding climate index and the warning lights of the business climate.First of all,it summarizes the current status of domestic and foreign scholars on the research on prosperity index and prosperity early warning,introduces the application of domestic and foreign typical prosperity index in the industry,and reviews the theory basis of prosperity theory,prosperity analysis theory and prosperity index.Put forward the idea of compiling the road freight prosperity index,determine the method of data preprocessing of the prosperity index,the classification of the prosperity index,and the determination of the weight of the prosperity index.Based on the research of the diffusion index and the composite index,the method of compiling the road freight prosperity index is proposed.Secondly,taking Chongqing road freight as an example,this paper selects relevant data indicators for case study.According to the principle of index selection and the actual situation of the industry,16 indicators are selected from four aspects of transportation production,transportation supply,market efficiency and macro-economy,and the benchmark date and benchmark cycle indicators are determined by applying the theory of economic cycle fluctuation.The selected index data are processed by data integration,data type unification and normalization,and the indexes are screened and divided by time difference correlation analysis,cluster analysis and peak valley correspondence method.Principal component analysis is used to determine the index weight of synchronous index group,and entropy method is used to determine the index weight of leading index group and lagging index group.Then,the diffusion index and weight index method are used to compile the prosperity index of Chongqing highway freight transportation,and the macro-economy,diffusion index and composite index of Chongqing are used for comparative analysis.Secondly,taking the road freight transportation in Chongqing as an example,relevant data indicators are selected for case study.According to the indicator selection principle and the actual situation of the industry,16 indicators are selected from the four levels of transportation production,transportation supply,market efficiency,and macroeconomics.Data integration,data type unification and normalization processing are adopted,and three methods of time difference correlation analysis,cluster analysis and peak-valley correspondence are used to filter and classify indicators into first,synchronized,and lagging indicator types.The principal component analysis method was used to determine the index weights,and the 2015-2019 data were selected using the diffusion index and synthetic index methods to compile the Chongqing highway freight forwarding prosperity index,which was compared and analyzed with the macroeconomic growth of Chongqing.Finally,in order to promote the high-quality development of highway freight economy,combined with the monitoring results of prosperity index,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for highway freight market.