Research On The Disposal Mode Of Ship’s Non-Performing Assets Based On Risk Assessment

Shipping industry is a typical capital and technology intensive industry,and the market fluctuates periodically.From the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 to the lowest point in history of the Baltic dry bulk index,in 2016,until now,the shipping market is still at the bottom of the cyclical trough.During this period,a large number of shipping companies broke out debt crisis and could not normally perform the due loan contract.Affected by this,the shipping market is in constant bankruptcy,forming a large number of non-performing loans for ships.As a typical counter cyclical industry,the non-performing asset industry has increased upstream supply,decreased asset prices and more active market transactions during the period of economic cycle downturn and market depression.The disposal of non-performing assets,as a closed-loop link in the financial industry,is responsible for the restoration of project value,the revitalization of assets,and the restoration of the vitality of market entities.As a subdivision field of the non-performing assets industry,the disposal of non-performing assets of ships has many complex hidden risk factors,which are difficult to predict and uncontrollable,because of its own significant characteristics of the industry.Therefore,it is of great significance for promoting the development of the industry to build a reasonable risk assessment system of nonperforming assets of ships,to screen key risk factors,to carry out scientific pricing assessment and analysis of non-performing assets of ships,and then to choose a reasonable way to deal with them.First of all,this thesis introduces the development of shipping market and the merger and bankruptcy of shipping companies in recent years.Secondly,the thesis summarizes the research of non-performing assets,the risk of non-performing assets disposal,the disposal of non-performing assets of ships,and the pricing model of ships.This thesis constructs a risk assessment system of non-performing assets of ships,in which the pricing risk is the core risk of the disposal of non-performing assets.From the perspective of "asset pricing",it analyzes the pricing of non-performing assets of ships in detail.Around ship pricing,economic cycle,bulk commodity trade,shipping index and shipbuilding raw materials are introduced.Taking China’s GDP growth rate,the world’s seaborne iron ore trade volume,the Baltic dry bulk index and Japan’s steel plate commodity price as the representatives of the corresponding factors,the thesis applies them to the multiple linear regression analysis of ship pricing model.In this thesis,the regression equation of ship pricing is deduced,and the pricing model of ship non-performing assets is constructed based on the discounted value of ship rental income.Finally,through the actual cases of the disposal of non-performing assets of ships,empirical application is carried out,and the empirical formula method is used for comparison and verification,so as to provide reference for the disposal decision of non-performing assets of ships.