A Study On The Development Path Of China’s Solar Photovoltaic Based On Technology Diffusion And Dynamic Programming

In recent years,due to the rapid economic growth and the sharp increase in energy consumption demand,the world is facing unprecedented environmental challenges.The development of renewable energy has become an important way for sustainable development.China’s solar photovoltaic power generation is developing rapidly and in a priority position in the national energy strategy.By the end of 2017,the cumulative installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power in China has reached 130 GW,of which the newly installed capacity in 2017 was 53 GW.In order to effectively coordinate the relationship between the scale and speed of solar photovoltaic power development and economic development,the government has continuously introduced various development plans for solar photovoltaic power generation.However,there exists a big gap between the actual development of photovoltaic and plans due to various affecting factors.Therefore,it is important to explore the development path of solar photovoltaic and analyze the influence mechanism of each influencing factor.This study firstly analyzes the technology diffusion of solar photovoltaic power based on technology diffusion model.It is found that solar photovoltaic as a renewable energy source will be affected by policies and external conditions.Then this study focuses on the dynamic programming method combined with the Bass model and the learning curve model,introducing constraints to represent the impact of factors,constructing an energy-economy-environment model to explore 2018-2050 optimal development path of China’s solar photovoltaic power generation and the impact of various factors.The conclusions are that: First,the 1300 GW installed target can be achieved;Second,factors such as GDP growth rate,investment proportion have limited impact on the development of solar photovoltaic power,but learning rate,grid consumption capacity,carbon trading price are the key factors in later period;Third,in the optimistic scenario,the goal is easy to achieve,but in pessimism scenario,although the goal can also be achieved,it is difficult.