Operation Risk Early Warning Of Main Canal In The Middle Route Of South-to-north Water Diversion Project Based On FMEA

The South-North Water Diversion Project is a strategic infrastructure in China,which is characterized by its grand scale,large investment,extensive scope and far-reaching impact.With the abundant Yangtze River as its water source,the project solves the problem of water scarcity in the Yellow River,Huai River and Hai River regions of China.This infrastructure supports and guarantees the rapid development of China’s economy and society and the accelerating socialization process.The channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a 1,432-kilometer-long and spans four provinces: Henan,Hebei,Beijing and Tianjin.The operation of the project may face many risks such as project structure,environmental factors and improper operation management.Especially its cascading characteristics,there may be risk superposition factors,so that the operation management of the channel project is a complex and high-risk task.The risk of any one section of the whole water transmission system will affect the safe operation of the whole system,and may even cause huge economic loss and adverse social impact.The study on the early warning of the operation risk of the channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project has important theoretical and practical values for the risk warning system and project operation management system of the channel in the middle route of South-North Water Diversion Project.The main research contents of this paper are as follows.(1)The identification of operational risk factors of the channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.This paper takes the operation safety of the channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project as the research object,decomposes and analyzes the operation risk factors of the channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project from three perspectives,such as operation management,project structure and environmental factors,using causality analysis and Bayesian network,and identifies the risk factors affecting the operation safety of the canal project in different canal sections,such as bad geological section,deep excavation section and high filling section,through field research and expert survey method.So than ascertaining the risk evaluation index system during the operation period.(2)The operational risk evaluation model of the channel in the middle route of South-toNorth Water Diversion Project.After the establishment of the risk evaluation index system for the operation period of the channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,experts score the multi-grained linguistic variables and FMEA risk evaluation method based on interval intuition fuzzy TODIM is introduced to establish the risk evaluation model of the channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.(3)Early warning research for the operation of the channel in the middle route of Southto-North Water Diversion.The risk early warning model includes risk early warning study based on FMEA and risk early warning study based on monitoring and testing items.The first part is a comprehensive early warning,which mainly focuses on the assessment of the daily operation status of the channel,and divides the alert level and determines the alert situation according to the risk evaluation results.The second part establishes a risk early warning system based on monitoring and testing projects for the channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project based on relevant norms of South-North Water Diversion Project,and the study includes four stages: causative factor identification,information collection,risk early warning,and emergency response.Finally,risk emergency response measures in line with the operation and management of the South-North Water Diversion Project are discussed.(4)The empirical analysis.In order to further verify the validity of the model,an example of a project section in the middle route of the South-North Water Diversion was selected,and the risk importance ranking of risk factors was first calculated according to the operation risk evaluation model of the channel in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.Based on the FMEA risk warning model for early warning,the risk factors with high alerts are identified.The correspondence between risk factors and monitoring and testing projects is found out,and the risk warning research model based on monitoring and testing projects is used for risk warning of monitoring and testing projects with high risk.The calculation results are more consistent with the actual situation and prove the applicability of the model.The research results of this paper provide a new idea for the risk warning and operation management of the channel of the South-North Water Diversion Project.