Research On Method And Application Of Complexity Assessment In Equipment Technology

At the time of entering the third decade of the 21 st century,the competition among the major powers is becoming increasingly fierce in the fields of politics,economy,military,culture,finance,trade,science and technology.Among them,the rapid development of the new scientific and technological revolution is pregnant with new major breakthroughs,which are likely to reshape the face of global science and technology,economy,military and other aspects.The development of weapon equipment technology cannot be separated from the promotion of science and technology.At present,the new scientific and technological revolution and the new military revolution are accelerating.The trend of interdisciplinary development of equipment technology is obvious.The emergence of new disciplines,new knowledge and new ideas is more reflected in the way of Interdisciplinary integration.Many major innovations appear in the interdisciplinary field.In the development process of modern weapons and equipment,it is often characterized by complex technical system,huge investment,high level of involvement and great influence on the overall situation.As a result of high technical complexity,problems such as cost overrun and schedule delay of weapons and equipment procurement project have become a problem that has puzzled many countries,which determines that in the process of developing weapons and equipment,all technologies should be Carefully screening,scientific management and overall planning.These make the importance of technology complexity assessment particularly prominent.The research work of this paper mainly includes the following aspects:(1)The theory and existing methods of technology complexity assessment are reviewed.The existing methods,taken the qualitative and quantitative research of technology complexity assessment,are mainly based on the theories and methods of information entropy,patent analysis,GDP weighting,expert scoring and so on with many shortcomings and limitations.This paper focuses on the theory of technology development and complex network,which lays a methodological foundation for exploring and proposing more reasonable evaluation methods and indicators of technology complexity.(2)Exploring the research object,definition and evaluation of technical complexity.This paper systematically reviews the existing definitions of technology,complexity and technical complexity.In view of the essence of technology and the connotation of its complexity,on the basis of summarizing the research of previous scholars,the definition of technical complexity is given from the perspective of the composition of technology.Based on the law of technology development,technical breakdown structure and the network analysis of technology,a framework of technology complexity assessment is proposed in four dimensions: time,space,structure and robustness.(3)Putting forward the modeling and evaluation method of technical complexity.Through the analysis of the law of technology development,the positive correlation between technology maturity and complexity is found.Then we established a method to describe technology complexity based on the length of growth period,technical breakdown structure features,the structural and robustness characteristics of technology network,and established the evaluation model of technology complexity.(4)Demonstrating the relationship between technical complexity indexes.Through the observing the time response curves of different complexity indexes in the actual cases,the correlation between the indexes is found,and the time response equation of complexity indexes is constructed by fitting the curves.It is preliminarily proved that in the embryonic stage of technology development,not only the length of growth period is a constant value,but also the complexity index of structure and strength is a constant value after introducing the influence factor of technology maturity.Based on this,it is inferred that there is a limitation in the complexity of a certain technology.With the improvement of technology maturity,the complexity of the technology gradually increases.When the technology reaches maturity,it will enter a gentle state,then the complexity of the technology will reach the limit,until a new technology emerges to replace the technology.