Research On Demand Forecast And Distribution Route Optimization Of Regional Emergency Medical Supplies Under The Epidemic Situation

As a sudden public health event,the new crown epidemic has strong infectious and hidden characteristics.Once an outbreak occurs,emergency management decision makers urgently need to make decisions in the first time to ensure the smooth implementation of emergency medical rescue operations.However,in the actual initial rescue process,due to the uncertainty of the spread of the epidemic,it is difficult to achieve precise matching of supplies between the supply and demand parties,which makes it more difficult to guarantee the supply of emergency medical supplies,which seriously affects the efficiency of emergency rescue.Therefore,how to solve the problem of the flow of medical supplies in the emergency management process,and accurately and quickly provide emergency medical supplies to disaster-stricken areas has become the key to emergency rescue.For this reason,combining the characteristics of epidemic transmission,in-depth analysis of the trend of virus infection,and proposing an emergency medical supplies demand forecast and distribution route optimization model that is different from general logistics scenarios,has very important theoretical and practical significance.Based on a full grasp of the emergency logistics theory system,this paper combines general demand forecasting and VRP problem optimization algorithms to construct a demand forecasting and delivery route optimization model for consumable emergency medical supplies.Specifically,the first is to use SEIR dynamics to predict the number of people spreading the epidemic,and then to define the emergency medical supplies unit to clarify the volume of emergency medical supplies in a single day;The second is to combine the entropy method and the AHP method to construct a demand urgency function including index factors such as the number of infections and the number of medical care,and use it as the basis of decision-making for priority distribution;Thirdly,with the shortest total system response time and the lowest delay penalty cost as the objective function,an optimization model of the emergency medical supplies distribution route considering the urgency of demand was constructed,and the genetic algorithm for the solution was designed;Finally,taking Wuhan City in Hubei Province as an example,the genetic algorithm is used to solve the demand forecast and distribution route optimization model to scientifically verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm.This paper has 25 pictures,28 tables,and 71 references.