| In recent years,emergencies across the world have occurred frequently.As a public health emergency of great concern to the world in recent years,the COVID-19 pandemic has the characteristics of strong spread,harmfulness,and complexity,and poses a serious threat to public life and health as well as social and economic stability.Facing the continuous spread of COVID-19 worldwide,our country also faces a serious public health crisis caused by the epidemic.Due to the uncertainty of the spread of the sudden epidemic,the shortage of medical supplies in the epidemic area is often seen.In the face of dynamic infection data and changing supply and demand status of materials,and the high difficulty of medical rescue makes it difficult for us to control the epidemic quickly and effectively.In the event of a sudden epidemic,emergency managers are required to make scientific decisions in a short period of time to ensure the reasonable distribution of emergency supplies and enable rapid response to emergency rescue operations.Therefore,how to formulate reasonable and effective control measures,how to formulate efficient and accurate emergency medical supply distribution plans,ensure the timeliness and fairness of emergency medical supply scheduling,is of great significance for effectively controlling the spread of infectious diseases and reducing the life and economic losses caused by infectious diseases.It has become one of the essential links in the scientific control of the epidemic.This paper combines the dynamics of Omicron virus transmission,analyzes the changes in infection data in Shanghai’s epidemic area,and uses the emergency logistics distribution process as the theoretical basis to scientifically allocate and deploy consumable medical emergency supplies based on comprehensively considering the future demand for medical supplies and the urgency of material distribution in the epidemic area.The emergency supply distribution path model that considers priority and dynamic demand under the public health emergency is constructed.Firstly,based on the grey prediction model,the positive and negative residuals are reasonably adjusted using Markov,which can handle data volatility,to build a positive and negative residual Markov grey prediction method with higher prediction accuracy.Starting from the prediction of emergency medical supply demand,the number of infected people in each fixed medical institution is clarified,and the emergency medical supply demand of each fixed hospital is analyzed based on the number of hospitalized infected people and medical staff,thereby providing reasonable data for material distribution.Secondly,the population density of the 11 administrative districts,the number of infected people,the number of beds at the demand point,GDP,and the material gap rate are used as indicators,and weighted based on the objective index weights determined by the entropy method and the subjective and objective weights determined by the AHP method.The priority ranking of each district is determined using the TOPSIS method,and the demand urgency function of each district is calculated as the decision basis for priority distribution.Finally,the minimum delay penalty cost and the minimum response time are used as the objective function,a distribution path model for emergency medical supplies considering the urgency of demand is constructed.The volume materials at the demand point and urgency of demanded are brought into the model to solve the best vehicle routing.The material dispatch of each demand point can be realized based on the dynamic prediction of emergency medical supply demand and the emergency priority situation as the decision-making condition,which can provide decision support for the emergency medical supply guarantee under the public health emergency. |
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