Research On Urban Residents’ Travel Intention And Travel Mode Choice Under The Driving Restriction Policy

With the rapid development of urban motorization,the number of motor vehicles has reached a new high,which makes cities face challenges in transportation,environment,energy,and other aspects.For the sustainable development of cities,it is necessary to control the use of motor vehicles to solve the current problems.Traffic Demand Management(TDM)policy can effectively manage car travel Demand and has been widely used in many cities at home and abroad.As one of the TDM measures,the traffic restriction policy has been applied in some big cities in China in recent years and achieved good economic and social benefits.It has become an important means to deal with traffic congestion and air pollution in many cities.However,due to the heterogeneity of travel individuals,different travelers have different behaviors to deal with the driving restriction policy after the implementation of the policy.Some travelers took the negative response behavior of avoiding the traffic restriction or illegal travel,which seriously affected the comprehensive benefit of the traffic restriction policy.Therefore,this paper,taking the implementation of traffic restriction policy in Xi’an as an example,explores the significant factors affecting travelers travel intention after traffic restriction and the interaction between the influencing factors,and analyzes travelers’ mode choice on the basis of considering individual heterogeneity.Firstly,the questionnaire is designed and the survey is carried out.The Stated Preference(RP)and intention Preference(SP)were combined to obtain the research data,and the Likert 5subscale was used to measure the psychological perception factors and travel intentions of travelers.The combined scenarios under different situational factors were designed by orthogonal test method to obtain the choice of travel mode under the hypothetical scenario.In this paper,two methods of network survey and field survey were used to obtain travelers’ samples based on random sampling survey.Through descriptive statistical analysis,it can be seen that travelers reduced flexible travel and private car travel on the days of restricted driving,and increased the use of other means of transportation after the implementation of the policy.Most travelers hold a supportive attitude towards the policy and almost never violate the rules on the restricted days.Secondly,the significant influencing factors and their interaction mechanism of urban residents’ travel intention under the driving restriction policy are studied.According to the Theory of Planned Behavior(TPB),Technology Acceptance Model(TAM)and the existing related research,psychological perception factors such as problem perception,effect perception,subjective norms,policy perception,policy attitude and travelers’ sociodemographic characteristics were selected to construct a model of travel intention of the driving restriction policy.Multiple Indicators Multiple Cause(MIMIC)model was used to verify the relationship between the psychological perception factors of travelers and the mechanism of their action on travel intention,and the influence of social and economic characteristics on the psychological perception factors and travel intention was analyzed.The results show that policy attitude,the perceived effectiveness and problem perception have direct and significant influence on travel intention.Policy attitude and the perceived effectiveness are the mediating variables.The perceived effectiveness and subjective norms affect travel intention by influencing policy attitude,and problem perception affects travel intention by influencing the perceived effectiveness.The total effect value of potential variables on residents’ low-carbon travel intention after implementing the driving restriction policy is ranked from large to small as the perceived effectiveness,policy attitude,problem perception and subjective norm.Socioeconomic characteristics are moderating variables,which can indirectly affect travel intention by adjusting travelers’ psychological perception factors.Policy cognition has no significant effect on travel intention.Finally,the travel mode choice behavior of different travelers under the policy was studied.According to the social and economic attributes of travelers,the Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector(CHAID)was used to refine the category of car travelers.Considering the social and economic characteristics of travelers,travel characteristics and situational factors,the fixed parameter Logit(FPL)model and the random parameter Logit(RPL)model were used to construct the travel mode choice models of different groups after the restriction.The advantages and disadvantages of the two models were compared by goodness of fit index,and corresponding policy suggestions were put forward.The results show that car travelers can be divided into four categories,namely young travelers with only one car,middle-aged travelers with only one car,elderly travelers with only one car,and travelers with multiple cars.The results of model test show that the fitting effect of RPL model is better than FPL model for the four group.Under the driving restriction policy,low-income young and middle-aged travelers with only one car are more likely to choose public transportation,while middle-aged and old travelers with only one car for long-distance travel are more likely to choose cars.Improving the level of public transport services can help attract one-car travelers to choose public transport on restricted days.Travelers whose departure time is between 7 and 9 o ’clock and whose travel distance is long will still choose to travel by car on restricted days.Traffic congestion does not change the travel behavior of people with multiple cars,but the effective restriction policy can help people with multiple cars to choose public transport.The conclusions of the study provide suggestions for guiding travelers to use public transportation and reducing private car travel,provide theoretical support for relevant departments of urban traffic management to formulate differentiated traffic restriction policies,and have reference significance for controlling urban traffic congestion and improving air quality.