Research On Risk Management Of Lithium Battery Raw Material Procurement Based On Behavioral Research

The lithium battery industry is an important pillar for the development of the new energy industry.It has a wide range of market applications and great development potential.However,lithium battery manufacturers also expose many problems in their operations,such as high uncertainty in the market demand for raw materials and large fluctuations in raw material prices.Cost is difficult to control,etc.Purchasing,as a business with the highest cost ratio among manufacturing companies,is a crucial link in the optimization of the lithium battery industry’s supply chain.Therefore,how decision makers with different risk attitudes use financial derivatives to avoid the procurement risk of lithium battery raw materials is an urgent problem to be solved.This article takes the procurement of lithium battery raw materials as the research object to analyze the risk attitudes of manufacturers and the decision makers of different risk attitudes.The impact of decision-making behaviors in the procurement of lithium battery raw materials on the profits of manufacturers.The main research contents are as follows:First,through research and analysis of the market structure of the lithium battery industry chain and raw material procurement channels and procurement processes,based on order contracts,option contracts and spot transactions,a raw material procurement model that conforms to the actual lithium battery industry is constructed,and the manufacturer’s expected profit function is obtained.Secondly,based on the theory of behavioral operations research,a lithium battery raw material procurement model that considers the risk perception attitude of decision makers is proposed.According to the risk perception attitude,decision makers are divided into three categories:risk preference,risk neutrality,and profit pursuit.The differences are analyzed through numerical calculations.Risk attitude towards raw material procurement behavior under different procurement modes.Then,apply behavioral operations research theory to design behavioral experiments that are in line with actual trading conditions,measure the risk attitudes of decision makers and their decision-making behaviors under different risk attitudes,analyze the impact of decision-makers’risk attitudes on the order of raw materials,and compare behavioral operations-based lithium batteries The raw material procurement model is validated.Finally,based on the decision-making behaviors of different risk attitudes,the company S in the lithium battery manufacturing industry is analyzed on the manufacturer’s income and profitability,combined with the analysis conclusions of the model simulation results,and provides management suggestions for the manufacturer to formulate procurement strategies and prevent procurement risks.This paper applies financial derivatives to the lithium battery raw material procurement model,uses behavioral operations research theory to conduct behavioral experimental analysis,and verifies the behavioral decision bias of people with different risk attitudes.It not only enriches the application of behavioral operations Balancing procurement risks and operating returns also has a guiding role.