Research On China’s Investment Potential And Risk Evaluation Of Cultivated Land In Central Asia

Since 2008,the food crisis has swept across the world,increasing the pressure on food security in many countries.The global COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 has directly caused significant fluctuations in the international food market.China’s arable land is inherently limited,and part of the arable land is in a state of protection or fallow.In recent years,the cost of food production has gradually increased,the possibility to improve the unit production is becoming smaller,the grain gap is still obvious.The pressure of food security and the lack of arable land provide more demand impetus for China to invest in overseas farmland.Central Asia has abundant arable land and good agricultural production conditions,making it very suitable for overseas arable land investment.China’s farmland investment in Central Asia can not only take full advantage of the competitive edge of China and Central Asia to obtain comprehensive benefits of agricultural production,but also give the ways for China to guarantee food security and ease the pressure on cultivated land.This article firstly reviews the current research on domestic and overseas farmland investment and agricultural investment cooperation between China and Central Asia,and explains relevant theories such as resource allocation and comparative advantage on the basis of defining relevant concepts.Secondly,it systematically sorts out the current situation of China’s overseas farmland investment projects,summarize and compare the policy,capital,technology and geographical advantages of China’s farmland investment in Central Asia and the existing problems.Third,empirical evaluation of China’s farmland investment in Central Asia is carried out.On the one hand,the potential index system is constructed from five levels of agricultural resources,production base,economic development,political environment and social management.The index weight is reckoned by the entropy weight method and the contribution rate of each weight is analyzed;the central point-based trigonometric whitening weight function is used to evaluate the potential of cultivated land investment in Central Asian countries,and compares the investment conditions of cultivated land at various levels.On the other hand,the investment risk index system is constructed from the political,economic,financial market,Socio-culture and the relationship with China,and the weight of each indicator are detected,then use the two-level Fuzzy Appraisal model to estimate the risk of China’s farmland investment in Central Asia,then analyze and compare the differences in investment risks in various countries.Finally,the research reaches the conclusions.The results show that: Firstly,in terms of investment potential,Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have relatively good investment potential.Turkmenistan ’s investment potential ranks third;Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is relatively limited.In terms of investment risk,Uzbekistan is relatively risky,followed by Kazakhstan.And the investment risk of Turkmenistan,Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is relatively small.Secondly,the order of the cultivated land investment in Central Asian countries is Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Turkmenistan,Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.Among them,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan are the most suitable countries for China to invest in cultivated land.Third,Kazakhstan has the absolute advantage in arable land resources and the most considerable investment potential.Uzbekistan has good production base conditions,foreign investment support and an ideal investment environment,but the investment risk is relatively high,the investment potential in this area ranks second.The overall performance of Turkmenistan ’s investment potential in all aspects is relatively stable,and the performance of financial market is strong,which is also suitable for farmland investment.Finally,the cultivated land investment in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is subject to different levels of constraints in different aspects.Although the investment risk is relatively small,the investment potential is relatively limited.According to the above results,this article puts forward some policy recommendations for China to develop cultivated land investment in Central Asia from the aspects of investment area selection,risk prevention and management,investment mode innovation,and social and cultural exchange.