| In the context of global warming and the "double carbon target",it is of great practical significance to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction and develop a low-carbon economy.As the world’s largest developing country and the world’s second largest economy,China’s economy accounted for about 15% of the world’s GDP in 2017,but its carbon emissions accounted for more than a quarter of the world’s GDP,making the carbon emission situation more severe.In this context,it is important to investigate the relationship between urban population,science and technology innovation and carbon emission intensity in Chinese cities,so that Chinese cities can implement emission reduction measures according to local conditions and build a high-quality development city with "innovation,coordination,green,openness and sharing".Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2000 to 2017,the entropy value method,Arc Gi S spatial visualization technique and Dagum Gini coefficient are combined to conduct a multidimensional analysis and differential study on the development characteristics of population,science and technology innovation and carbon emission intensity of Chinese cities.On this basis,the relationship and influence effects of population development,science and technology innovation,and carbon emission intensity at the overall level and sub-region level in China are empirically investigated using the panel vector autoregression（PVAR）model,while the empirical exploration of single population factor and carbon emission under the overall level is conducted in order to consider the relationship between population factor and carbon emission intensity.The results show that:（1）The evolutionary characteristics of urban population,science and technology innovation,and carbon emission intensity in China are similar and heterogeneous,and the similarity is reflected in the strong stability of the spatial distribution pattern of each system during the study period and the obvious inter-city differences,while the heterogeneity is reflected in the development and distribution characteristics of each system,and the inter-regional differences are the main reason for the differences among the three systems.（2）At the national level,science and technology innovation and integrated population development will reduce carbon emission intensity,and the negative feedback effect of both on carbon emission intensity has a lag effect,and the inhibitory effect will gradually diminish over time.The impact of science and technology innovation on carbon emission intensity is much higher than that of integrated population development.Carbon emission intensity promotes science and technology innovation,and carbon emission intensity and science and technology innovation promote integrated population development,and the three have not achieved benign interaction for the time being.（3）At the sub-regional level,the directions of the effects of comprehensive population development,science and technology innovation and carbon emission intensity are heterogeneous among regions.In the east and west,science and technology innovation has a negative effect on carbon emission intensity,and an increase in the level of science and technology innovation will reduce carbon emission intensity;in the central and northeast regions,the level of science and technology innovation will reduce carbon emission intensity in the short term,but increase it in the long term;in the four regions,comprehensive population development has a negative effect on carbon emission.In the long term,the comprehensive population development in the east,central,west and northeast regions has a positive effect on science and technology innovation.（4）At the sub-regional level,the impact intensity of comprehensive population development,science and technology innovation and carbon emission intensity in each region is heterogeneous.In the long term,it seems that the impact of science and technology innovation on carbon emission intensity is higher in eastern,central and western regions than that of comprehensive population development,and the impact of their carbon emission intensity on science and technology innovation is much higher than that of comprehensive population development.（5）Most of the population single indicators have a strong coordinated interaction with carbon emission intensity,urbanization（urban）promotes carbon emission intensity（ci）,population economic activity intensity（pgdp）,the proportion of employed population in secondary industry and carbon emission intensity（ci）promote each other,and urbanization（urban）and population economic activity intensity（pgdp）promote each other.（6）Among the single factor of population,the impact of population economic activity on carbon emission intensity is higher than that of urbanization rate.There is redundancy in energy use efficiency in the process of China’s economic development,economic development has not achieved green development,and the increase of carbon emission intensity will promote the increase of per capita GDP.It is necessary to grasp the development characteristics,screen the difference characteristics,and take targeted measures from both the government’s macro-control and overall policy,and the local situation and the right remedy. |
