| Climate change poses a significant challenge when it comes to building a community of shared future for mankind and a community of life for man and nature.As the world’s biggest energy consumer,largest carbon dioxide emitter,and a responsible developing country,China’s response to climate change not only is an internal requirement for the promotion of its own sustainable development,but also reflects its responsibility to create a community of shared future for mankind.In September 2020,Chairman Xi announced at the general debate of the 75 th United Nations General Assembly that China will increase its national independent contribution,adopt more powerful policies and measures,strive to peak carbon emissions by 2030,and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.In September 2021,in order to provide guidance for promoting the implementation of an effective response to climate change and the dual goals of carbon emissions,the Communist Party of China Central Committee and State Council unveiled a guiding document on the country’s efforts to achieve emission peak and carbon neutrality goals under the new development philosophy.Undoubtedly,the key to the effectiveness of policies created in response to climate change and the dual goals lies in implementation.In China,the county is a basic and important administrative unit with complete economic function and relatively independent operation,which accounts for 78.00% of the territory,71.94% of the population,and 51.80% of the GDP.Not only is it an important component of industrial areas and contributor to carbon emissions,but is also a key administrative unit for the implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and policies in China.Compared with cities,counties have great potential in economic growth and greater flexibility in development path.Correspondingly,the pressure from carbon emission and the potential of carbon emission reduction coexists at county level.Clarifying carbon emission accounting system and accounting methods in the county scale,and studying the variation trend,structural characteristics,spatiotemporal pattern,carbon balance zoning and emission peak of carbon emission in typical counties are of great significance for the rapid low-level peak carbon emissions in the county,carrying out targeted regional carbon control and emission reduction,and county low-carbon spatial planning.The research has enlightening significance and reference value for exploring the realization path of "dual goals" in the county,and promoting the county ecological protection,realizing high-quality development and green low-carbon transformation.This study takes Changxing county of Zhejiang province,Jintang county of Sichuan province,Wu’an city of Hebei province and Qingcheng county of Gansu province,which are typical and representative in economy,population,industry,emissions and geographical location,as the study area.Firstly,this study comprehensively combs and constructs the county carbon emission accounting system,systematically calculates the carbon emissions of the four study areas from 2005 to2020,and analyzes the carbon emission structure and intensity of the four study areas.Secondly,it constructs the technical framework of spatialization of carbon emission in the county scale,forms the spatial data set of carbon emission of four study areas from2008 to 2017,explores the optimal resolution of the spatial carbon emissions at the county scale,and analyzes the spatiotemporal pattern of carbon emission and evolution of carbon balance zoning of four study areas.Thirdly,based on the STIRPAT model,the thesis simulates the carbon emissions of the four study areas from 2005 to 2020 by using the ridge regression method,and sets the scenario values of carbon control indicators,and forecasts the carbon emissions of the four study areas from 2021 to 2030 by scenario.The time and value of peak of four study areas are obtained based on the peak judgment of carbon emission change trend.The peak stability of four study areas is determined by integrating the change trend of carbon emissions and decoupling status.Finally,a series of low-carbon optimization countermeasures for county carbon balance zoning are proposed from the four aspects of carbon intensity control zone,low-carbon optimization zone,carbon balance zone and carbon sink function zone.The core conclusions of this study are summarized as follows:(1)The total carbon emissions of the four study areas have obvious hierarchical characteristics.Carbon emissions mainly come from industry,and industrial energy consumption is mainly coal.As industrial county,Changxing,Jintang and Wu’an have a high proportion of industrial energy consumption and industrial process carbon emissions.Changxing county and Jintang county are similar in terms of industrial energy consumption structure and industrial emission characteristics,both of which are dominated by general bituminous coal,and carbon emissions mainly come from production and supply of electric power steam and hot water and non-metal mineral products industry.Wu’an city is dominated by coke,and carbon emissions mainly come from the steel industry.As a county in less developed areas,Qingcheng county has distinctive characteristics in the change and structure of carbon emissions.Compared with the counties in the eastern developed regions,Qingcheng county has a low proportion of industrial carbon emissions,while the proportion of tertiary industry and household carbon emissions is relatively high.(2)The optimal resolution of carbon emission spatialization at county scale in the study area is 200m×200m.By analyzing the scale effect of carbon emission spatial data under different resolutions,comparing the changes and scale turning points of aggregation index,landscape shape index and Shannon diversity index curve at the landscape level under different resolutions,combined with the change trend of area loss,patch loss and perimeter loss curve in information loss assessment,it can be concluded that the optimal resolution of carbon emission spatialization at county scale in the study area is 200m×200m.(3)Different carbon source zones show different spatiotemporal patterns.High carbon zones show the change characteristics of agglomeration to urban areas and central towns,and their dominance is significantly enhanced.Their spatial distribution is greatly affected by the topographic and geomorphic characteristics,and accounts for a small proportion of the county area.The medium carbon zones are mainly villages and towns and road networks,with relatively scattered spatial distribution,high diversity index,low integrity index,and low aggregation index.Affected by the expansion and segmentation of high and medium carbon zones,the integrity and dominance of low-carbon zones are continuously reduced,and the dispersion is improved.The surrounding area of the urban area belongs to the crisscross zone of high,medium and low carbon zones,with various types of carbon sources,high diversity index,and low integrity and aggregation of carbon emissions.(4)According to the carbon compensation rate and spatial carbon emission intensity,the county space is divided into high carbon intensity zone,low-carbon optimization zone,carbon balance zone and carbon sink function zone.Natural background and industrial structure jointly determine the structural relationship of county carbon balance zoning.In regions with good natural ecological conditions,carbon sink functional zone occupy a dominant position in the balanced zoning pattern(such as Changxing county and Jintang county).Compared with other types of counties,high carbon intensity zone of regions with high industrialization level and various categories of manufacturing industries accounts for a larger proportion(such as Changxing county and Wu’an city).In the less-developed region(such as Qingcheng county)dominated by agriculture,the low-carbon optimization zone occupies a dominant position in the spatial pattern.High carbon intensity zone is smaller than lowcarbon optimization zone and carbon sink function zone in area proportion,but its spatial carbon emission intensity is large,which is the core zone of carbon control and reduction in the future.(5)The time,value and stability of peak in the study area can be obtained based on the variation trend of carbon emissions and its decoupling from economic development.Under the gradual,benchmark and enhanced scenarios,Changxing county and Jintang county have reached the peak of carbon emissions,and the peak time was 2019 and 2011 respectively.Under the gradual scenario,the peak times of Wu’an city and Qingcheng county may be 2024 and 2027 respectively;Under the benchmark and enhanced scenarios,the peak times of Wu’an city and Qingcheng county was 2020 and 2008.Based on the variation trend and decoupling status of carbon emissions,it can be judged that the carbon emissions of Changxing county have reached the peak stably,and that of Jintang county has basically reached the peak.There is uncertainty in the peak state of Wu’an city and Qingcheng county.(6)This study puts forward the following county spatial low carbon optimization countermeasures: High carbon intensity zones need to respond in improving energy efficiency,changing energy structure,improving production technology,and building a low carbon transportation system.Low-carbon optimization zones need to make coordinated responses in promoting distributed power generation,developing green and low-carbon agriculture,and advocating a low-carbon lifestyle.Carbon balance zones should pay attention to the quality improvement of forest and grassland and the efficiency increase of agricultural land,and coordinate the relationship between agricultural production space and ecological space in the county.Carbon sink function zones need to clarify the protection red line of carbon sink functional zone,and carry out ecological restoration and protection. |
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