Research On The Spatial And Temporal Distribution Of "Robbery,Grabbing And Theft" Crimes And Its Influencing Factors In The Main Urban Area Of Chongqing

As a disorderly human activity in a specific space,crime not only causes the people’s property loss,but also affects the healthy development of the city,and even triggers social unrest.Among them,theft and robbery crimes have the characteristics of large,frequent,and continuous cases,and strong life relevance,which has a serious impact on the harmony and stability of the society.Studying the crimes of robbery,and theft in the main urban area of Chongqing can not only make up for the lack of empirical research on crime time and space in western mountainous cities,but also enrich the empirical research materials of criminal geography in China,and provide the necessary empirical foundation for the construction and development of its theory.It can help the public security system to rationally deploy police resources,and provide a reference for the delineation and plan design of key areas for prevention and control.In addition,it is also conducive to improving the level of urban governance and the construction of the business environment,attracting more investment from enterprises,and helping Chongqing achieve better and faster development in the opportunity of the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.This study uses standardized crime intensity index,geographic spatial analysis and mathematical statistical analysis to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of "robbery,grabbing and theft" crimes and their influencing factors in the main urban area of Chongqing from 2014 to 2018,and the conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2014 to 2018,the "robbery,grabbing and theft" crimes in the main urban area of Chongqing City have time heterogeneity.On an annual scale,the number of cases reached the maximum in 2016,but the overall trend is declining;on a monthly scale,it was a crime from March to May High-incidence period,January-February and September-November is the period of low crime;on the daily scale,the middle of the month is the period of high crime;on the time scale,1:00-4:00 in the morning is the period of high crime.(2)From 2014 to 2018,the center of gravity of the "robbery,grabbing and theft" crimes in the main urban area of Chongqing moved counterclockwise in Jiangbei District and Yubei District;crimes moved from west to east on the county scale,the scope of crimes continued to expand,and the spatial distribution showed a clustered state,but As time progresses,a trend of proliferation begins;the density of cases on the street scale is generally distributed in an irregular circle with Yuzhong District as the core;the spatial distribution of crimes is also in a concentrated pattern,and it is more and more concentrated over time.This trend is opposite to the county scale,but its clustering pattern distribution characteristics are consistent with crime density distribution.The spatial distribution characteristics of crime hotspots at the county scale and at the street scale are consistent,and they all form concentrated distribution areas in the core areas of the main urban areas where Yuzhong,Jiulongpo,Nan’an,Jiangbei,and Yubei are connected.There are sporadic distributions in Beibei,Yubei and Banan districts,that is,outside the main urban area.The area where the secondary cold spots and cold spots are distributed belongs to the transition zone and edge zone of the city from a spatial point of view,which conforms to the law of geographical distribution of urban crime.(3)The existing analysis of the social attributes of criminals shows that men are the subject of crimes,and the number of criminals shows a "rising first and then falling" trend;the 18-40 age group accounts for the largest proportion;criminals generally have a junior high school education and do not have a fixed occupation;In the pairwise correlation analysis of influencing factors,population density,per capita GDP,slope,proportion of population over 60 years old,per capita disposable income of residents,POI density,and unemployment rate all show a strong correlation with crime density.Among them,population density has the strongest influence on the crime of "robbery,grabbing and theft" among all factors;in the regression analysis of the combined effect of variables,only population density and per capita disposable income of residents will have an impact on crime density.