| Population aging is an inevitable trend of social development,and it is also a hot issue of concern in the world today.China is the country with the largest aging population,and the population aging in its natural watershed is also obvious.Studying the evolution of population aging is of great significance to the high-quality development and the balanced sustainable development of population in the Yellow River Basin.First of all,based on indicators such as the scale of aging population,the population aging rate,the growth rate of aging population,the increase range of the population aging rate,the degree of coordination between aging and economic development,and the type of regional population aging,this paper analyzes the regional evolution characteristics of aging population from the three major regional scales of the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin and the prefecture-city scales.Then,seven indicators are selected from four aspects of population inertia,population development,economic development and social development,and the influencing factors of population aging in different regions and different degrees in the basin were studied by linear stepwise regression and geographical detector.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The scale of aging population in the Yellow River Basin is increasing,and the differences among the three regions are narrowing.The spatial distribution pattern of aging population in the basin is “Mountain” at the city scale.The aging rate increases with the expansion of urban scale,and the whole basin will enter a super-aging society.The aging trend of large and small cities is strong,and the trend in the Yellow River Basin is high in the west and low in the east.The coordination degree between aging and economic development first decreases and then increases,and the distribution agglomeration is obvious.The regional aging type has obvious gradient evolution from east to west.(2)The direct factors affecting the evolution of population aging in different regions and degrees in the basin are the survival proportion of potential aging population and the proportion of permanent population.The survival proportion of potential aging population is the dominant factor in the evolution of population aging in the basin.All factors have a positive impact on the population aging rate.Downstream areas with large population base and deep ageing with high ageing rates are affected greatly.Each factor has mutual positive strengthening effect.(3)In the basin,population aging in large and small cities is increasing strongly,and the regional social and economic burden is increasing.In the upstream and midstream areas,the aging rate is increasing rapidly,and the trend of “getting old before getting rich” will increase.The type of regional population aging has increased,and the complexity and diversity of elderly care needs have increased.In response to these problems,this article puts forward corresponding suggestions.Big cities actively develop and utilize aging resources,small cities improve the medical and social security system.Promoting the coordination of economic development and aging,accelerating the development of aging industry in the upper and middle reaches.Multi-department joint,the same type of reference,local suitability to develop an active response to aging policy.It is hope to actively respond to population aging and promote the long-term balanced development of the population in the Yellow River Basin through measures such as adjusting measures to place-based,adjusting time and vary with everyone. |
