Spatial Pattern Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Population Aging And Elderly Population Health Level In Border Areas From The Perspective Of Population Contraction

Population flow and contraction are important factors affecting regional population aging,and it is of great significance to understand and grasp the characteristics of population aging from the perspective of population contraction.Based on the census data of 2000,2010 and 2020,this paper takes Heilongjiang Province,a border region typical of population contraction in China,as the research sample,and uses spatial correlation analysis,Pearson correlation analysis,Dagum Gini coefficient and spatiotemporal and geographically weighted regression model to characterize the population aging level,the health level of the elderly,the spatiotemporal characteristics of population aging level under different types of contraction,and analyze the role of their influencing factors from the county scale.The results showed that:(1)2000-2010 was the transition period from slow population growth to mild contraction,and 2010-2020 was a period of accelerated contraction from moderate contraction to severe contraction and severe contraction,and the shrinkage level of rural population was 17 times higher than that of urban population;The high-value areas with population shrinkage level are mainly distributed in the agricultural and forestry resource-based regional units in the northwest and south and have the characteristics of axial distribution,while the low-value areas are mainly distributed in urban and municipal districts.(2)The aging level of the population is high and showing accelerated growth,and the overall gradient of adult-type I.-senile I.-senile III.is upward;From 2000 to 2020,the level of rural aging increased by 2.41 times compared with 2000,and the growth rate was96.89% higher than that of urban areas.The overall aging level of the population shows a spatial pattern spreading from the southeast to the entire region,the spatial differences gradually narrow,and the units tend to develop in a balanced manner.(3)The aging level of the population of different types of shrinkage showed an accelerated development trend,which was generally manifested as a proportional relationship between the larger the degree of population contraction and the faster the growth of the population aging level;The aging level of the population in different types of contraction generally showed a convergence trend,and the gap between different types of contraction became the main source of differentiation of population aging level.(4)The health level of the elderly population in the study unit reached 85.07%,but the total number of elderly people who could not take care of themselves has exceeded150,000,and the health level of the elderly population in rural areas is significantly lower than that in urban areas;The spatial distribution of the health level of the elderly population is uneven,and the overall pattern of "high in the west and low in the east,high in the south and low in the north",and the high-value areas are mainly distributed in the Hardaqi Industrial Corridor Economic Zone in the western part of the region.The health level of the elderly population of different population shrinkage types is basically manifested as population growth type> mild contraction type> moderate contraction type> severe contraction type> severe contraction type.(5)The influencing factors of population aging are reflected in the base of the elderly population> per capita years of education> birth rate> mortality rate> per capita GDP> migration rate>migration rate> number of beds per 1,000 people;The dominant influencing factors of different types of population contraction and population aging level are the base of the elderly population,and the greater the degree of population contraction,the stronger the positive effect.The influencing factors of the health level of the elderly population are reflected in the per capita number of years of education> the aging coefficient> the dependency rate of other family members> the number of beds per 1,000 people>urbanization rate.The leading factor in the health level of the elderly population in different population contraction types was the number of years of education per capita,but the influence intensity of severe contraction type was higher than that of other contraction types.Therefore,strengthening the governance of population shrinkage and population aging has become an important task to maintain the security of the border and even the country’s population.