| The report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed the "Implementation of the National Strategy for Actively Responding to Population Aging",which raised the active response to aging to the national strategic level and highlighted the significant practical significance of studying the issue of aging.Henan Province is located in the center of China,with a large population and aging characteristics comparable to the national level.Studying the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Henan Province is of great significance for implementing active population and socio-economic policies.The thesis is based on two dimensions of time and space,using spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse,and cold hot spot analysis to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of population aging in Henan Province,as well as the correlation and agglomeration of population aging between regions.The main influencing factors are empirically analyzed using a geographic weighted regression model.Research has found that the number and proportion of the elderly population in Henan Province are increasing year by year,with a clear trend of aging;In terms of growth rate,the aging population in Henan Province is accelerating,with Zhengzhou as the center of the growth pattern showing a trend of ebb and flow;The center of gravity of aging shows that the overall spatial pattern of aging in Henan Province shows a north west south east trend,and has a trend of spreading towards the west east;From the perspective of center of gravity migration trajectory,the aging population in Henan Province has a trend of developing southward.Spatial autocorrelation indicates that there is a strong spatial positive correlation between aging in various cities,and there are spatial differences in aging among regions.There is a high level of agglomeration of aging in the southeast,while a lower level of agglomeration of aging is formed in the northwest.Over the past 20 years,the spatial distribution of aging in Henan Province has evolved from a cluster distribution to a strip distribution.Cities south of the Yellow River have more severe aging than cities north of the Yellow River and flowing through it.The analysis of cold and hot spots further confirms the above results.Regarding the influencing factors of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of population aging in Henan Province,research has found that natural growth rate has an increasing impact on cities with small population bases,gradually shifting from deepening aging to alleviating aging.For cities with large population bases in the central and southern regions,the impact of natural growth rate is relatively small;The impact of Net migration rate is increasing,and most cities have experienced a change from positive to negative impact,which has an inhibitory effect on aging in general;The better the economic development and the higher the level of healthcare in regions,the higher the talent agglomeration effect and the lower the degree of aging;The illiteracy rate has a positive impact on aging,and the impact is gradually decreasing;The impact of natural altitude on aging is mainly analyzed from the perspective of agricultural proportion,that is,areas with low altitude and more plains have higher labor crowding out effects and a greater degree of aging.Based on the above research,this thesis proposes the following policy recommendations: vigorously developing urban economy,promoting regional transfer and adjustment of industries;Actively promoting policies to encourage population fertility and advocating for "optimizing fertility";Southeast cities should increase their efforts in talent introduction to alleviate the continuous outflow of talents;Establish and improve the pension insurance system;Increase investment in healthcare;Actively respond to the national aging strategy and improve the aging work system. |
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