| At this stage,China’s overcapacity problem has restricted the development of China’s economy and has fallen into a vicious circle of "surplus,regulation,surplus,and regulation again." The central government has always attached great importance to the problem of overcapacity.Among the five major tasks of China’s economic supply-side structural reform,"decapacity" is at the top of the task and is the top priority.Therefore,it is of great significance for my country to optimize the industrial structure and improve the problem of overcapacity by measuring the utilization rate of capacity,exploring the causes of overcapacity and exploring its governance strategies.This article first collates relevant domestic and foreign literature,and systematically summarizes the causes of China’s overcapacity problem,and finds that domestic scholars’ research on the causes of overcapacity can be roughly divided into two categories: one is market factor theory,and the other is government intervention theory.The analysis of the motivation of government intervention can be attributed to the financial pressure of local governments under fiscal decentralization and the promotion pressure of local officials caused by promotion tournaments.Next,this article briefly describes the research background—fiscal decentralization,and sorts out the impact of fiscal decentralization on overcapacity.Finally,this article analyzes the reasons for local government intervention in corporate investment and the impact of local government intervention on overcapacity.Next,this article analyzes in detail the two major motivations of local government intervention.The first is financial pressure.Because industries with overcapacity may generate considerable transaction profits and fiscal taxes,local governments are likely to intervene in the investment behavior of enterprises under financial pressure,aggravating the overcapacity of industries with overcapacity,and thereby increase the industrial capacity of the region.The utilization rate is reduced.Based on this,research hypothesis 1: The greater the financial pressure of local governments,the more serious the regional industrial overcapacity.The second part analyzes the reasons for the overcapacity caused by the promotion championship.Based on this,the research hypothesis 2: the greater the promotion pressure of the local party committee secretary,the more serious the industrial overcapacity,and the research hypothesis 3: the capacity utilization rate and the tenure of the local party committee secretary increase first The inverted U-shaped curve relationship after subtraction.After comparing a variety of capacity utilization calculation methods,this paper chooses the data envelopment method model that considers slack variables to calculate the capacity utilization rate of 30 provinces(except Tibet)in China from2001 to 2016,and makes a simple descriptive calculation result Analysis: The results show that the average capacity utilization rate estimated by the SBM model is 57.03%.According to Xu Haiyang et al.(2013),considering factors such as economic development stage,industrial organization structure,and consumption structure and level,72%-74% are considered "desirable" capacity.The conclusion of the utilization rate range shows that the industrial overcapacity in various provinces in China during the entire sample period is very serious.In the empirical analysis part,since the explanatory variable of this article is the intercepted data between(0,1),after comparing the least squares method(OLS)and the Tobit model,this article chooses the Tobit model for regression.The capacity utilization rate is used as the explained variable.Using financial pressure,promotion pressure,and official tenure as the explanatory variables,the measurement test results are in line with expectations.In the robustness test,this article uses reselecting the sample interval,replacing the main explanatory variable and using the lag value of the core explanatory variable These methods of making explanatory variables ensure the robustness of the test results.The findings of this paper are as follows:(1)my country’s industrial overcapacity has regional characteristics.(2)my country’s industrial overcapacity has obvious cyclical characteristics.However,after 2012,there has been a tendency to break away from the economic cycle.(3)The financial pressure of local governments has a positive effect on the overcapacity of the region.The greater the fiscal pressure,the lower the utilization rate of production capacity.(4)The promotion pressure of local officials has a positive effect on the regional overcapacity.The greater the promotion pressure,the lower the capacity utilization rate.In addition,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the tenure of local officials and the capacity utilization rate.As the tenure of office increases,the capacity utilization rate first increases and then decreases.Further support the conclusion.Based on the above research conclusions,this article puts forward relevant policy recommendations:(1)Promote fiscal and taxation system reform,government budget reform,standardize government revenue and expenditure behavior,and establish a scientific and feasible fiscal supervision mechanism.(2)Construct a scientific performance evaluation system and optimize the evaluation criteria for officials’ promotion.(3)Speed up the improvement and improvement of market mechanisms and systems,and regulate the behavior of "economic man" in government departments. |
