The Impact Of Sino-US Trade Conflict On China’s Imported Soybean

Soybeans are an indispensable and important part of people’s lives,and they are also widely used in the food industry,feed industry and breeding industry in the national economy.However,since 2018,the Sino-US trade conflict has continued to ferment.As a counterattack,China raised tariffs on US soybean imports by 25% on July 6,2018.This measure not only affects the quantity and price of imported soybeans,but also enters the domestic market through the price mechanism,and drives the price fluctuations of related products through the soybean industry chain,which is reflected in the CPI,and then affects the macro economy.From the industrial level to the individual level,the important role and significance of soybean is self-evident,and it is also closely related to the stable operation of the social economy.Therefore,it is of practical significance to discuss how much and what kind of impact the additional US soybean tariffs imposed on Chinese soybeans during the Sino-US trade conflict.Based on this,this article uses relevant basic data,from the perspectives of the transfer effect and price effect of tariffs,first uses a double difference model to empirically analyze the impact of tariffs on the transfer of soybean trade,and then uses multiple linear regression models to empirically analyze This article analyzed the increase of tariffs on domestic soybean prices,and finally used the VAR model to empirically analyze the impact of tariffs on domestic consumer prices,and judge the impact of US soybean tax increases on domestic production,consumption and life.The empirical results of the double-difference model show that the trade diversion caused by the tariff increase has increased China’s imports of Brazilian soybeans by 1.889%,but it has not had a significant impact on the import price.The empirical results of the multiple linear regression model show that the increase in tariffs caused a small increase in domestic soybean prices by 0.451%,and the increase in tariffs has a different degree of impact on soybeans and corn with different import characteristics.Compared with corn,soybeans with a faster market opening process More affected.The empirical results of the VAR model show that after tariffs are imposed,the impact of international soybean prices on CPI changes has been greatly reduced,and ultimately only 4.7118%.In general,the unexpected incident of US soybean tax increase has little negative impact on domestic soybean supply and the basic lives of the people.The reason is that the shifting effect caused by the tariff increase has eased the imbalance of soybean supply and demand to a certain extent,diluted part of the increase in soybean prices,and the domestic soybean market has maintained stable operation,which has a limited impact on CPI.However,this Sino-US economic and trade conflict also reminds us that soybeans,a commodity that is highly dependent on imports,have many risks and high risks.At the same time,the rigid domestic demand for soybeans determines that a large amount of imports is necessary,and soybean import security risks will exist for a long time.The opportunity of the soybean incident should be grasped to improve the ability to coordinate the utilization of domestic and international markets and the two resources at home and abroad.Specific measures include promoting the diversification of soybean import sources,improving the self-sufficiency of domestic soybeans,and improving the soybean import safety guarantee mechanism.Expand soybean substitution consumption.