| "There is no national security without network security." Network security is closely related to the normal life of individuals,social stability and national security.Containment of cybersecurity issues has always been the focus of attention in the industry and academia.Using legislative means to maintain cyberspace security and deter cybersecurity issues has become a major measure for countries around the world to eliminate hidden cybersecurity risks.Taking national security as a logical starting point,China has promulgated the "Cyber Security Law of the People’s Republic of China",referred to as the "Cyber Security Law" to deter cyber security issues.However,there have been inconsistent conclusions on the deterrence effects of legislation.Therefore,explore cyber security The deterrent effect of legislation is crucial.In order to explore the deterrence effect of cybersecurity legislation within national borders,this study takes the promulgation of cybersecurity law as the research background and takes the most common online fraud-phishing as an example,uses the regression discontinuity design in econometrics to construct a breakpoint regression model for the deterrence effect of cybersecurity law to test the deterrence effect of the implementation of legislation on phishing,select 0.5 times,1 times and 2 times the optimal bandwidth to test the influence of bandwidth on the results,and test the continuity of the covariate probability density to exclude the influence of the covariate.On this basis,we analyzed the deterrence spillover effects of cybersecurity laws outside the national borders.We use foreign hacker forums as a platform,a hybrid method combining text analysis and regression discontinuity design is used to classify the content of hackers’ posts before and after the breakpoint.The post is divided into three categories: "attack" posts,"defense posts" and "irrelevant" posts.We sort out the classified data and build a regression model of the deterrence spillover effect breakpoint to analyze the deterrence spillover effect brought about by the promulgation of the cyber security law and judge whether it is a contagious effect or a competitive effect.This studiy have found that the promulgation of the Cyber Security Law has a significant deterrent effect on phishing,eliminating the possible impact of information infrastructure development,Internet penetration,and population,and the results are still significant under different bandwidths.The research on the spillover effect of deterrence found that the deterrence spillover effect brought by the cybersecurity law increased the proportion of posts about cybersecurity defense content,which was a contagion effect,and promoted the discussion of cybersecurity content in hacker forums.This study expands the research on deterrence effects in the field of information security from outside the organizational boundaries,enriches the application space of deterrence theory,and promotes cybersecurity legislation and international collaboration in cyberspace governance. |
