The Impact Of Population Aging On Scientific And Technological Innovation

Population aging is a long-term trend of China’s current economic and social development,which will adversely affect the country’s development and social progress as well as other aspects.Therefore,the Chinese government emphasizes to further implement the national innovation-driven development strategy and improve the level of scientific and technological innovation to cope with the adverse impact of population aging.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the influence mechanism of China’s aging population on scientific and technological innovation in order to better promote the high-quality development of China’s economy and society and promote China’s construction into an innovative country.In this paper,the connotation of population aging and scientific and technological innovation and the relationship between them are sorted out.Then,the influence mechanism of population aging development degree and development speed on scientific and technological innovation is analyzed through theoretical methods.The national and regional level analysis about the present situation of an aging population and scientific and technological innovation level,and then established the level of population aging and the index system of science and technology innovation level,and by using the method of entropy on comprehensive measure,finally the level of economic development as the threshold variables,using the panel threshold model study of an ageing population as a whole The threshold effect of development degree and development speed on scientific and technological innovation.The innovation of this article is mainly reflected in:（1）the existing studies of the effects of population aging on scientific and technological innovation,the general view is that an aging population is a single static variables,without considering an aging population is a dynamic process,will be affected by the degree of development and speed,so this article on the aging of the population measure,from two dimensions of development degree and speed of development to come in Line comprehensive evaluation.In the existing literature,most scholars to evaluate science and technology innovation level is to use a single variables per capita number of patent license or patent authorization number per ten thousand people,there are also some scholars choice from the Angle of innovation of science and technology input and technological innovation output to evaluate science and technology innovation level,but due to the influence factors of technology innovation level is diverse and complex,its evaluation is not accurate,so this article under test When measuring the level of scientific and technological innovation,we choose to evaluate the input,output and transformation capacity of scientific and technological innovation from four aspects.（2）In the existing literature,most scholars explore the direct effect of population aging on scientific and technological innovation,while a few scholars explore the indirect effect of population aging on scientific and technological innovation through human capital effect and pension expenditure effect.In this paper,the level of economic development is taken as the threshold variable.The panel threshold model is used to study the impact of population aging on scientific and technological innovation.The results of empirical analysis show that:（1）taking the level of economic development as the threshold variable,both population aging and its subdivision dimensions have significant threshold effects on technological innovation.Among them,there is a double threshold effect of population aging on scientific and technological innovation.As the level of economic development crosses the corresponding threshold,the impact of population aging on scientific and technological innovation presents an inverted "U" shape.The development degree of population aging has a double threshold effect on scientific and technological innovation,and its changing trend is the same as that of population aging as a whole.Population aging has a single threshold effect on scientific and technological innovation,which changes from promoting effect to inhibiting effect with the increase of economic development level.（2）From the role of control variables,education development level and urbanization level both promote the development of Scientific and technological innovation in China.