How Does Aging Population Affect Industrial Transformation And Upgrading?

Since the second decade of the 21st century,our country’s population structure and its growth trend have undergone great changes,and has entered a new normal characterized by the continuous decline in the fertility rate and the continuous increase in the average life expectancy.With the continuous deepening of population aging,there is an urgent need to build a new pattern of coordinated development of population and economy to promote sustainable social development under the new normal of population and economy.The National Medium and Long-term Plan for Actively Responding to Population Aging points out that to respond to Population Aging,it is necessary to constantly strengthen the scientific and technological strategic support,improve the social security system,increase the accumulation of human capital,and promote economic development in line with the aging development.The new normal of the economy is characterized by the adjustment of demand structure,the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the acceleration of economic growth.It pays attention to the quality of economic development rather than the pursuit of economic aggregate.The 19th CPC National Congress pointed out that industrial transformation and upgrading is an important part of the new development mode,but also an important support for sustainable development.Among many factors that affect the change of industrial structure,the change of population age structure plays a dominant role.Population aging from the supply side and demand side of the industrial transformation and upgrading of the formation of multi-faceted,multi-channel impact,these impacts constitute a complex relationship structure.Therefore,in the context of the new normal of population and economy,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how population aging affects industrial transformation and upgrading.Population is the main body of social and economic development,and the coordinated development of population and economy is very important in national development strategy.Based on the related literatures,this paper expounds the relationship between the change of population age structure and the change of industrial structure.First of all,this paper combs out the impact mechanism of population aging on industrial transformation and upgrading,and the adjustment mechanism of S&T innovation,social security and labor cost in the process of population aging.Then,using 30 provincial panel data from 2004-2019 to construct benchmark model and panel threshold model,we empirically analyze how population aging affects industrial transformation and upgrading.Firstly,according to the regression results of the fixed-effect model,we can see that the aging of population has a significant positive impact on industrial transformation and upgrading within the scope of this study.Secondly,according to the test results of panel threshold model of national sample,it is found that aging has significant threshold effect on industrial transformation and upgrading.The improvement of social security level can effectively weaken the negative impact of aging on industrial transformation and upgrading,and the impact of population aging on industrial transformation and upgrading will change from negative to positive after crossing the threshold;when the threshold variable is scientific and technological innovation and labor costs,the impact of aging on industrial transformation and upgrading will be stimulated after crossing the threshold to have a stronger driving effect.Thirdly,with the eastern region as the sample,the results of sub-sample regression show that the threshold effect of aging on industrial transformation and upgrading is significant when S&T innovation,social security and labor cost are taken as the threshold variables;with the central region as the sample,the single threshold effect of aging on industrial transformation and upgrading is significant when S&T innovation and social security are taken as the threshold variables,and there is no threshold effect of aging on industrial transformation and upgrading when the labor cost is taken as the threshold variable;while with the western region as the sample,there is no threshold effect of aging on industrial transformation and upgrading when S&T innovation,social security and labor cost are taken as the threshold variables.Finally,according to the results,this paper gives policy enlightenment from increasing investment in science and technology,improving social security system,improving foreign trade structure,deepening household registration system reform and strengthening government macro-control.