Study On The Impact Of Marriage Matching Competition On Urban Housing Prices In China

Since the implementation of the one-child policy,the imbalance between the number of male and female population in China has become prominent because of the traditional preference for boys and the progress of medical technology.According to the data of the seventh national census,the total number of men in China is 34.9 million more than women,and the sex ratio at birth is 111.3（female = 100）.At the same time,the fertility rate in China also shows a downward trend.In 2020,China’s annual birth population was 12 million,and the total fertility rate was 1.3,which was at a extremely low fertility level.The high sex ratio and low fertility rate make the male marriage squeeze seriously in China.In 2017,the gender ratio of unmarried people in China was as high as 144.46（female = 100）,with men accounting for 59.09% and women only accounting for 40.91%.In 2019,the sex ratio of unmarried population in China is as high as 152.95（female = 100）.This leads to the increasingly fierce competition of marriage matching among marriageable people.The increasingly fierce marriage matching competition makes the marriage house competition popular.Houses have become a necessary condition for the successful conclusion of marriage.This kind of social phenomenon not only increases the rigid housing demand of residents and promotes the rise of house prices,but also makes the social vulnerable groups finally bear the consequences of competition failure.This might aggravate social injustice,even intensify social contradictions,and finally affect family formation and social harmony.Under the dual background of intensified marriage matching competition and house prices fluctuation in high level,systematically revealing the essential relationship between marriage matching competition and housing prices has become an important issue to grasp the market operation law,improve the effectiveness of housing regulation and build a harmonious society.Based on the above analysis,this study uses the Bellman equation analysis method under the framework of overlapping generations model to construct a theoretical model reflecting the relationship between marriage matching competition and housing price,and empirically tests the specific relationship between them using the data of prefecture-level cities in China.The main research work is as follows:（1）Under the framework of overlapping generations analysis,a mathematical model is established to reveal the relationship between marriage matching competition and housing price by using Bellman equation analysis method.In order to explore the internal relationship between marriage market and housing market,marriage matching competition,intergenerational transfer of family wealth and parental altruistic behavior capacity are introduced into the overlapping generation model.Then a theoretical model revealing the relationship between them is constructed based on Bellman equation analysis,and the research hypothesis of this paper is put forward.（2）Taking 286 prefecture-level cities in China as samples,this paper depicts the transmission mechanism between marriage matching competition and housing price.Using the panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities from 2005 to 2017,this paper empirically tests the impact of marriage matching competition on housing prices,as well as the role of intergenerational transfer of family wealth and parental altruistic behavior capacity.The empirical results show that the intensification of marriage matching competition is an important driving factor for the rise of urban house prices,namely,the more intense the marriage matching competition is,the more likely housing prices in Chinese cities are to rise.The mechanism of marriage matching competition affecting housing price lies in the intermediary role played by the intergenerational transfer of family wealth,and parental altruistic behavior capacity negatively moderates the first half path of the intermediary effect and positively moderates the second half path of the intermediary effect.（3）Based on the classification of 286 prefecture-level cities,the paper explores the heterogeneity of marriage matching competition affecting housing prices.Chinese286 prefecture-level cities are divided into 4 categories（east,middle,west and northeast）and 5 categories（megacity,megalopolis,big city,medium-sized city and small city）according to geographical location and urban size.The differences of the impact of marriage matching competition on housing prices in various cities are compared.The results show that the impact of marriage matching competition on housing prices is uneven,and will show heterogeneity with different geographical location and urban size.From the perspective of geographical location,the marriage matching competition in the eastern and western regions has no significant impact on house prices,while the marriage matching competition in the central and northeast regions has a significant positive impact on housing prices.From the perspective of urban size,the marriage matching competition in small cities and megacities does not significantly affect housing prices.The marriage matching competition in medium-sized cities,big cities and megalopolises has a significant positive effect on house prices,and the effect will show a decreasing characteristic with the expansion of urban size.Based on the fact that China’s marriage market and housing market are closely connected,this thesis explores the influence mechanism of marriage matching competition on housing price through the combination of theoretical model and empirical analysis,and excavates the heterogeneity of them in different cities,so as to further reveal the essential relationship between marriage market and housing market.The research work not only broadens the application direction of overlapping generations model and Bellman equation,but also enriches the related research on the connection between marriage market and housing market.Based on this,this paper puts forward some suggestions on further improving the housing security system and integrating the factors such as gender structure and intergenerational transfer into the housing demand prediction system,and points out that the youth groups should be guided to establish healthy mate selection standards,so as to transform the realistic pressure of deepening marriage competition in China into the driving force to promote the healthy development of China’s housing market and improve national quality.This has important theoretical and practical significance for the formulation of housing regulation policies,reversing the "marriage housing competition" into "quality competition",and realizing "a better life" and "a dream of living in peace" for the marriageable population.