Empirical Analysis Of Chinese Population Mortality Forecasting

With the rapid development of our country and improvement of people’s living standards,Chinese population mortality rate has gradually decreased,and the elderly population has continued to increase.Longevity risk will have a certain impact on social and economic aspects.Therefore,we pay more attention to the management of longevity risk.The common method is providing a comprehensive pension insurance plan.In order to make more accurate arrangements and pricing,we need to make more accurate predictions of mortality rate.This article uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative research,dynamic research and comparative research.In the empirical research section,the selected mortality model is compared and analyzed from three aspects:the stability of parameter estimation,the goodness of fit,and the reasonableness of the prediction.The innovation of this article also runs through the entire empirical research process:(1)The U.S.population is a reference population,and we use the U.S.population mortality data to find more death information and improve the accuracy of predictions;(2)Uniform data caliber,and use linear interpolation to complete missing data;(3)By comparing and analyzing the single-population and two-population mortality models,we find that the two-population model performs better.The research results show that the RH model performs the worst in terms of parameter estimation stability,while the CBD model and the M5~B model are basically the same for the parameter estimation values fitted to different time span data.The AIC and BIC values of the two-population random mortality model were lower than those of the single-population model,indicating that the fitting effect of the two-population model is better.The fan chart of the APC~B model is narrower,indicating that the uncertainty of the prediction is smaller.Reasonable and accurate mortality prediction data will provide strong data support for longevity risk securitization research and the policy design of the pension system.