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Geographical Difference Of Chinese Population Mortality

Posted on:2014-12-02Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q Q ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2267330425964448Subject:Insurance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Along with economic development and the progress of medical technology, people live longer and the mortality rate has a significant decline. This is a great factor causing the aging of the population. Aging phenomenon, which can be a sign of social progress and development, should be treated with optimism. But at the same time, ageing population also brings many problems. So it is a big test to the society. In the face of ageing, improvement of the future mortality should be more understood, only in this way can cope. Lee-Carter model is recognized as a classic mortality prediction model. Its data fitting and forecasting has good effect on mortality. Applying the model to the population data of China is to study and predict the future trend of development, and then put forward the proposal to deal with the aging.The essay will adopt the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis, comparative research methods, qualitative and quantitative analysis. Through the analysis on mortality model, we choose Lee-Carter model as the main model of research, and draw lessons from existing research, improving the classical model to be more suitable for the characteristics of the Chinese population data. In the empirical analysis we apply Chinese data to the model and make projections for mortality. The population of China, in accordance with the regional grouping, is fallen into three categories, city, town and village. Comparing the mortality trend of different regions we can put forward different countermeasures to the ageing. This is just the point of innovation. Classic model was improved, which conforms to the characteristics of Chinese population. The application of other parameters estimation method makes the degree of fitting to the original data and the predicted effect improved. Through the study of Chinese grouped data we can compare population development trend and the mortality of regional differences. In view of the model results according to different regions we put forward targeted strategies to cope with the ageing population. Through the study of China’s population, we can see the improvement of mortality and mortality differences in different regions. Results show, the death rate of rural improvement is the most obvious. Along with the year mortality rate is nearly linear. The mortality of town will have a significant reduction in the future, and then leveled off. At the same time in city the mortality rate along with the year is almost level. Transverse comparison of Mortality shows that the lowest mortality rate is in city, followed by town. In rural the rate is highest. The results also show that the mortality improvement of village and town in low age group is most. When putting forward countermeasures, I think that according to different population development trend in different area, there should be a targeted response. In the above three areas, rural area has the most obvious improvement and the lowest level of development. So the endowment problem should be given more attention.
Keywords/Search Tags:mortality, Lee-Carter model, ARIMA model, forecast
PDF Full Text Request
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