U.S. Employment Composition And Path Analysis ——Based On The Perspective Of Global Value Chain

How trade affects employment has been a research hotspot in academia.With the development of the GVCs and its increasing effact on the labor market,The traditional analytical methods based on the total value of trade have been unable to accurately calculate and measure the current trade interests and trade relations between countries.In recent years,the Sino-US trade friction has aroused widespread concern in the academic community.One of the questions that need to be answered is how does Sino-US trade affect American employment.Based on this,it is of practical significance to study American employment from the perspective of global value chains.Based on the global value chain perspective,this paper combines the input-output theory to construct a theoretical framework for employment composition and employment paths.Subsequently,using the world input-output table and socio-economic account data provided by the WIOD database,the current situation of US employment during 2000-2014 is described,and the total employment composition of the United States during 2000-2014 is analyzed.Furthermore,the structure path analysis method was used to calculate and analyze the employment paths of the United States from 2000 to 2014.Based on the data of 2014,the US employment composition and the key paths to drive US employment were analyzed.The main research conclusions of this article are as follows: from 2000 to 2014,domestic domestic final demand driven employment was far greater than foreign final demand driven employment.The domestic and foreign final demand driven employment were mostly service industries,and the trend was increasing;in 2014,foreign countries Among the final demand driving US employment,Canada,China,Mexico,Germany,and the United Kingdom are the five countries driving the most employment in the United States.The driving industries are mainly concentrated in the service industry and manufacturing;the direct final demand path is directly producing final products and being Consumption is the most important key path to drive employment in the United States."Human health and social work → residential consumption" and "administrative support activities → real estate → residential consumption" were the most important direct（first-order）and Indirect second-order employment path;in the foreign demand path,"mechanical equipment → investment（Canada）" and "metal products → construction industry（Canada）→ investment（Canada）" were the most important direct（first-order）driving US employment in2014)And indirect second-order paths;foreign demand In the path,the major impacts on employment in the United States are Canadian residential consumption,Canadian investment,and Chinese investment.From the perspective of the country where the final demand is located,Canada has the greatest impact on U.S.employment,followed by China and Mexico;it can be seen that economic and trade exchanges with Canada,China and other countries are of great significance to boost U.S.employment.Friction will,to a certain extent,curb this part of the employment drive,and then have an adverse impact on domestic employment.