Research On Driving Factors And Paths Of China's Employment Changes Based On The Decomposition Of Global Value Chains

The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century.The world economy has entered a stage of deep adjustment: The Covid-19 epidemic has disrupted normal foreign trade and cross-border investment orders,and the global supply chains,industrial chains,and consumer chains have been severely damaged.How to achieve “stabilizing employment” in the context of the shrinking global market and the impact of the global value chain has become an important challenge for the current government.In-depth exploration of the impact of global value chains on China's employment,and analysis of the driving factors and paths of China's employment changes based on the perspective of global value chains can provide theoretical support for coping with the employment shock caused by the current economic downturn and the reconstruction of global value chains,and also can provide scientific support to formulate employment promotion policies,stabilize employment in China.It is of great significance to alleviate employment pressure.This paper uses WIOD database and China Labor Statistics Yearbook data to construct an analysis framework based on the value chain decomposition of employment change driving factors and employment change paths.This paper uses structural decomposition technology to analyze the driving factors of China's employment growth based on industry heterogeneity and employment composition under the heterogeneity of skills.Using the structural path decomposition,this paper builds a country's complete industrial chain employment path of “upstream production industry ?(intermediate product processing sector)? downstream final demand”.In the perspective of final demand,this paper analyses the paths that affect China's employment growth so as to provide empirical evidence for formulating relevant employment policies in specific industries or specific demand sectors.Through research and analysis,this article draws the following conclusions:(1)Among the main employment components,domestic demand has the most obvious effect on China's employment promotion,and it is much higher than the number of jobs driven by traditional trade,simple GVC exports,and complex GVC exports;domestic demand has led to an increase in the total number of jobs,while traditional trade has driven more employment than driven by simple GVC and complex GVC.Among low-skilled jobs,information transmission,software,and information technology service industries have changed a lot;among medium-skilled jobs,the larger changes are in agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery;and among high-skilled jobs,the larger changes are the information transmission,software and information technology service industry.Among China's major exporting countries,it has the least stimulating effect on high-tech employment in China.(2)The labor coefficient change effect and the final product change effect impose the greatest impact on employment changes,while the feedback effect has the least impact on employment changes.In the impact of export trade on China's employment,the impact of exports to the United States on China's employment is greater than that of other countries and regions both before and after the financial crisis.Before the crisis,exports to the United States have an important promotion effect on China's export employment;but after the crisis,exports to the United States have the most obvious inhibitory effect on Chinese employment.Whether it is employment driven by domestic demand or export trade such as traditional trade,the change in the coefficient of low-skilled labor is the main factor restraining employment growth.(3)From the perspective of domestic final demand,“construction industry ?investment” is the greatest impact paths.“Crop and livestock production?resident consumption” is the impartment demand paths that inhibit China's employment growth.Among the key paths of final foreign demand,"textile,clothing,leather ?residential consumption(Russia)” is the demand paths that promote higher employment growth in China.“Textile,clothing and leather?resident consumption(US)” is the demand paths that inhibit China's employment growth.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations: In order to stabilize employment and promote economic growth,we should focus on the domestic cycle,with expanding domestic demand as the base point,and should guide enterprises to explore the domestic market,comprehensively build a domestic value chain that meets demand,and create jobs,thereby ensuring the driving effect of domestic demand on employment.We should take into account the international circulation,broaden global value chain channels,and increase export channels to promote the effect of exporting abroad on China's employment.Then we should accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure,further improve China's participation in global value chain production,optimize the labor structure,and promote high-quality employment development,so as to achieve the ultimate goal of stabilizing employment.