Research On The Impact Of Human Capital Outflow On Total Factor Productivity In China

For a country,the outflow of human capital may lead to the loss of capital,which has a negative impact on the development of national economy and innovation ability.However,it may also bring more opportunities for the development of domestic human capital and encourage human capital investment.The human capital for further study abroad will bring more resources to domestic development and improve the overall quality of human capital of the country.The return of capital will have a positive role in promoting national technological progress.Therefore,the outflow of human capital may have positive and negative effects on national economy and technological progress.After China’s accession to WTO,the scale of human capital outflow has increased year by year,which has a profound impact on national economy and innovation.However,there are few studies on the changes of national innovation capability caused by human capital outflow in China,and the effect of human capital outflow on national total factor productivity(TFP)is not clear.This thesis is devoted to exploring the impact of human capital outflow on TFP,and analyze whether human capital flowing abroad on a large scale will have an impact on domestic technological innovation ability and what kind of impact.Using the provincial-level panel data from 2001 to 2018,this thesis first constructs a panel vector autoregressive model(pvar)to find that the outflow of human capital has a complex trend of influence on TFP with time.And then this thesis constructs a spatial panel model to explore the spatial effect of human capital outflow on TFP.The coefficient of spatial term of dependent variable is significant,which indicates that there is an obvious spatial spillover effect.Combined with the dynamic panel model,we find that human capital outflow has a negative impact on TFP.In addition,the effect of lagged human capital outflow on TFP has changed from positive to negative.Therefore,we should encourage reasonable human capital outflow,exert the positive impact of human capital outflow on TFP,and weaken the negative impact.At last,based on the conclusions of empirical analysis,the thesis puts forward some policy recommendations to improve China’s TFP at this stage.