Spatial Pattern Evolution Of Fertility Rate And Its Relationship With Geographical Environment In China Since 1982

Under the generally low fertility,it is more worthy of attention to explore the spatial differences in fertility and the influencing factors behind them.This paper takes China’s provincial administrative regions as the main research unit,explores the characteristics and evolution of spatial pattern of fertility in China’s since 1982,analyzes the influencing factors behind it,focuses on the impact of geographical environment on the spatial differences of fertility,and further compares the driving forces behind different levels of fertility.The results show that:(1)Since 1982,the fertility shows the difference of "East-Middle-West" three steps.The highest fertility is the western region,followed by the central and eastern regions.However,since 1982 the difference in fertility has gradually narrowed.In terms of internal differences,the high and sub high fertility areas are mainly distributed in the southwest and northwest,and the low and sub low fertility areas are concentrated in northeast and eastern coastal provinces.(2)Through the spatial auto correlation analysis,it could be found that since 1982 the fertility has a positive spatial correlation,the spatial aggregation of fertility is the strongest in 1982,and then gradually decreases and tends to be stable.The spatial aggregation pattern also changed from high value aggregation to low value aggregation.In 1982,the spatial agglomeration pattern was dominated by high value agglomeration.1990 and later,the high value agglomeration pattern gradually weakened,and the low value agglomeration pattern significantly enhanced.(3)The main influencing factors of fertility have been social and economic development since 1982,supplemented by family planning policy and geographical environment.The first principal component with the highest contribution rate is always the variable of social and economic development dimension.Besides since 1982,the dominant factor of the second principal component has changed from birth policy and geographical environment to the level of social and economic development.(4)The geographical environment variable has a certain contribution to the spatial difference of fertility rate,but since 1982 with the development of social and economic development level and technology level,it’s influence has been weakening.(5)The internal driving force of the spatial difference of fertility rate is spatiotemporal.At the national level,the dominant factor of the spatial differentiation of fertility has always been the dimension of social and economic development level since 1982,and the explanatory power of geographical environment is in a state of low to recession.At the sub-regional perspective level,the leading factor of the spatial differentiation of fertility in the three regions is always the level of social and economic development.In addition,the contribution rate of geographical environment in the west is greater than that in the central and eastern regions.