Research On The Impact Of Interprovincial Mobile Population On Local Financial Expenditure

Since the reform and opening up,the scale of mobile population has expanded rapidly,from 6.57 million in 1982 to 236 million in 2019 in China.The population has mainly flowed from the central and western regions to the eastern region,and a new trend of "migratory bird migration" has appeared in recent years.The ever-expanding scale of population mobility has had a non-negligible impact on the economic and social development of population inflow and outflow areas.On the one hand,local governments currently rely on the household registration system to provide public goods,so the mobile population cannot equally enjoy the public goods flowing into the region.However,under the basic public service equalization system and the "citizenization" policy of the mobile population implemented by the state in recent years,the public service plight of the mobile population has been eased.As far as population flows into places,in order to meet the public goods needs of the mobile population,local fiscal expenditures will inevitably be affected.On the other hand,as far as the outflow areas are concerned,the outflow population does not contribute to the local development,but the local government still needs to provide some public goods for this group of people,causing the local financial burden to be aggravated.The research content of this article is intended to pay attention to how the inter-provincial mobile population will affect the fiscal expenditure of local governments,and at the same time,to examine the supply of public goods of the mobile populationThis article first combs the literature on population mobility and local fiscal expenditures,and makes a theoretical analysis of the impact of mobile population on local fiscal expenditures based on the theory of population migration and public goods supply.Subsequently,referring to previous studies,local fiscal expenditures are divided into three types: production,maintenance,and consumption.From the perspective of population inflow and population outflow,the impact mechanism of mobile population on the three types of expenditure is analyzed.Secondly,using the two census data to analyze the characteristics of my country’s inter-provincial population flow,and by using the difference between the permanent population and the registered population as a measure of the mobile population,the average value of the mobile population in each province and city in my country from 2009 to 2017 was calculated.In order to define the population inflow provinces and cities in this article and the population outflow provinces and cities,respectively,from the scale of various types of fiscal expenditures and their proportions to the total fiscal expenditures,the current state of fiscal expenditures in the inflow and outflow areas are analyzed.Finally,based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2009 to 2017,the empirical study of the impact of the mobile population on various fiscal expenditures in the areas where the population flows into and where the population flows out are respectively.The empirical results show that the mobile population will mainly have a significant impact on per capita consumption expenditure.Specifically,population inflow will significantly increase local per capita consumption expenditure and per capita education expenditure under consumption expenditure,while population outflow will significantly reduce per capita consumption in the region.Per capita education expenditure under consumption expenditure and consumption expenditure.This shows that the equalization of educational services for the mobile population in my country has achieved remarkable results,and the supply of educational public goods for the mobile population has been improved.With the outflow of population,it may adversely affect the development of education in the outflow areas.Based on the empirical results,this article believes that expenditure responsibilities should be divided according to the different characteristics of public goods to clarify the main body of public goods supply for the mobile population;speed up the construction of the local tax system to effectively encourage local governments to provide public goods for the mobile population;adopt more flexible public goods Supply methods to meet the multi-level and multi-faceted needs of the mobile population;improve the transfer payment system to ensure the local public goods supply capacity.