Research On The Impact And Forecast Of College Students’ Educational Output From The Perspective Of Educational Ecology

Higher education is an important part of our country’s education,and it is the main force for the country’s scientific research development and talent training.In 2002,our country’s higher education began to enter the stage of popularization,establishing a connotative development path centered on quality improvement.In 2019,the scale of higher education continued to expand and entered the stage of popularization of higher education.With the large-scale development of higher education,the quality of training is also facing severe challenges.In October 2020,the State Council issued the "Overall Plan for Deepening Educational Evaluation Reform in the New Era",which requires reforming school evaluation,advancing the fundamental task of fostering people,strengthening the core position of talent training,and highlighting the cultivation of professional capabilities and practical application capabilities.From an ecological perspective,the population in an ecosystem cannot grow indefinitely,and it will be restricted by the environment.As an artificial ecosystem,colleges and universities,when their scale of development exceeds the capacity of certain educational resources and the environment,will cause the input and output of the system to lose balance.And talent training is the ecological development process of students in this system environment.Research on educational output can not only point out the direction of students’ efforts and struggles,but also inspire colleges and universities to conduct self-evaluation,optimize input models,and improve educational output.This research focuses on the basic topic of "the educational output of college students",and systematically analyzes and answers the following questions:(1)What is the connotation and index system of college students’ educational output?(2)What are the ecological factors that affect the educational output of college students,What is the relationship between various ecological factors and educational output.(3)From the perspective of universities,teachers and students,analyze how to improve educational output.According to research needs,this article is based on relevant national policies and programs such as the "Overall Plan for Deepening Educational Evaluation Reform in the New Era",based on the ability-based education theory,Austin’s IEO model and other related theories,using survey interviews and literature analysis methods to extract college student education Output indicator system.And based on the perspective of ecology,a model of the impact of college environment,training process and student learning input on college students’ educational output is constructed.Then conduct data analysis and empirical research through SPSS and AMOS,verify theoretical hypotheses,and propose corresponding countermeasures and measures.Finally,by constructing an artificial neural network to predict the value-added of various educational outputs of college students.The main conclusions obtained in this study are as follows: First,the index system of college students’ educational output consists of four dimensions: professional knowledge and ability,general ability,conscious & thinking,and values.A total of 15 indicators are used to systematically explain the comprehensive literacy that college students should have through higher education.Second,based on the perspective of ecology,it investigates the university environment,the training process,the state of student input in learning,and the impact of these three factors on the educational output of college students.The survey shows that the students’ perception of the university environment and training process is at a general level,and it does not meet the students’ expectations well.The student’s learning input is also at an average level and still needs to be improved.Through structural equation model analysis,it is found that both the college environment and the training process can significantly affect the educational output of college students.In the student’s learning input,metacognitive input has a significant positive effect on educational output,and behavioral input has a positive effect on educational output,but it is not significant.Finally,the constructed neural network can better realize the prediction of the value-added situation of the education output of college students,so as to provide more effective feedback for each education subject to better support education and teaching related activities.