Study On The Spatiotemporal Evolution And Influence Mechanism Of Population Aging In China

One of the prominent population problems in our country is the aging of the population.As a developing country,my country has joined the ranks of an aging society prematurely.The aging of the population in my country also has the characteristics of uneven regional development,large regional development differences,and the spatial evolution of aging.Based on the above background,this article explores the temporal and spatial evolution and influence mechanism of the degree of population aging from the perspective of time and space.First of all,by consulting related literature,it is found that the aging degree indicators used by various scholars over the years are aging rate,old-child ratio,and old-age dependency ratio.By analyzing and comparing the similarities and differences between the indicators,this article considers constructing a comprehensive aging index to measure The degree of aging;secondly,based on the constructed comprehensive aging index,the spatial correlation analysis and the aging center of gravity are used to describe the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the population aging degree of each province and the characteristics of historical evolution;finally,fully integrate the population aging of each province Based on the objective facts of unbalanced development,using the temporal and spatial geographic weighted regression model(GTWR)of the influencing factors of population aging degree,explore the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the influence of various factors on the degree of population aging,and reveal the influence mechanism of population aging development.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)As time goes by,the aging of our country’s population continues to expand and deepen,from the eastern and central regions to the western regions.(2)The spatial distribution of the degree of aging in each province is dependent,with obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics,and the agglomeration characteristics are increasing.Provinces with low-value agglomeration are mostly located in the west,and provinces with high-value agglomeration are mostly located in the east.The aging center of our country has experienced a time-space evolution process of "NorthwestSouthwest-Northeast-Northwest-Northeast",and the overall trend is a movement toward east and north.(3)The six factors of per capita GDP,urbanization rate,birth rate,death rate,number of medical machinery and equipment,and illiteracy rate have different effects on the aging of the population in different provinces in different periods.Among them,the urbanization rate,the number of medical machinery and equipment and the illiteracy rate has the largest temporal and spatial difference in the impact of population aging.The six factors have positive and negative effects on each province,but overall,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,death rate,and the number of medical machinery and equipment have a positive effect on enhancing the degree of aging,and the birth rate has changed from the previous negative.The positive effect has been transformed into a positive effect in the later period,and the illiteracy rate is mainly a negative effect of alleviating the degree of aging.The influence of various factors on the degree of population aging shows a certain regularity,manifested as a changing law of always being negative,always positive,from positive to negative,or from negative to positive.(4)Regarding the spatial heterogeneity of the factors affecting the degree of population aging,the regression coefficients of each factor have large spatial differences.The impact of per capita GDP on population aging from west to east,from north to south,first increases and then decreases,showing an inverted U-shaped trend of low on both sides and low in the middle,presenting an imbalance of high in the east and low in the west;the impact of urbanization on population aging The impact from west to east,from north to south,first decreases and then increases,showing a U-shaped trend of high on both sides and low in the middle.The urbanization rate in the north has a higher impact on population aging than in the south;the birth rate gradually rises from west to east and from north to south.The direction change is steeper.The birth rate in the east has a higher impact on population aging than in the west;the death rate regression coefficient presents a gentle trend of high in the east and low in the west,and high in the south and low in the north;the regression coefficient of the number of medical machinery and equipment has a relatively steep change.The trend of high in the west and low in the north,high in the north and low in the south;the influence of the illiteracy rate on population aging increases from southwest to northeast,the east-west change is relatively gentle,and the north-south direction is relatively steep.The illiteracy rate has a higher impact on population aging in the north than in the south area.