Research On China’s Population Flow Spatial Pattern And Its Influencing Factors

Since the reform and opening up,with the rapid development of China’s society and economy,the promotion of urbanization and the reform of the household registration system,the scale of floating population in China has risen rapidly.The increasingly large scale of floating population not only profoundly affects the development of many aspects such as urban society,economy and environment,but also brings the serious problems of unbalanced floating population distribution and unbalanced urban development.Based on the data of 2000 and 2010 population censuses,this paper used geordie coefficient,population gravity center,spatial autocorrelation and other indicators and methods to analyze the spatial pattern and its changes of population flow in China from 2000 to 2010.Based on the spatial correlation of population flow,this paper explored the dynamic mechanism of population flow,relying on the spatial econometric model,and put forward policy suggestions for the guidance of interregional urban development and population flow in China,combined with the spatial pattern.Research shows that:(1)From 2000 to 2010,the proportion structure of population inflow in the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions was relatively stable.The eastern region was the major area of population inflow,while the central and western region was the major area of population outflow.In terms of the floating population distribution,the imbalance of inflow population distribution was the greatest in the eastern region,and the imbalance of outflow population distribution was the greatest in the western region.The distribution of urban population inflow and outflow showed a positive spatial correlation,but the correlation declines.In terms of spatial distribution of urban population inflow,the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta cities had obvious economic advantages and strong population attraction,while the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region was relatively weak.In terms of urban population outflow,cities of Henan,Anhui and other provinces in the central and western regions were the major population outflow areas.(2)From 2000 to 2010,the number of cities with net population inflow in the eastern region increased,and the corresponding net inflow rate also increased.Some of cities with net population inflow in the western region changed to cities with net outflow,the distribution changing from flake to fragmentation.The polarization of the overall net outflow and net inflow of Chinese cities became more serious.From the perspective of distribution equilibrium,the distribution of urban net floating population in China was far from the uniform distribution,showing a highly concentrated state.Within the country,the imbalance degree of the net inflow population distribution remained unchanged,while the net outflow population distribution became more balanced.As far as population aggregation is concerned,the cities of net inflow were further concentrated in the eastern coastal region near the north,while the cities of net outflow were further concentrated in the central region.The urban net flow rate showed a positive spatial correlation,and the agglomeration was strengthened.The Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta cities are the main cities with net population inflow,while the main cities with net population outflow were in the central and western provinces of Anhui,Henan and Hubei,as well as Sichuan,Guizhou and Guangxi.(3)Regional economic level,urban wage level,fixed assets investment,savings of urban and rural residents,industrial structure and environmental conditions all had a significant positive impact on the urban net flow rate,while local financial expenditure had a certain positive but not significant impact.Among ratio indexes,the industrial structure had a greater impact,while the urban wage level and the savings of urban and rural residents had a greater impact among the non-ratio indexes.