Research On The Impact Of Housing Decision On New Generation Of Migrant Workers’ Willingness To Have Two Children

With the rapid development of urbanization in China,more and more rural migrants are flowing into cities for jobs.According to the migrant worker monitoring survey statistics,the total number of migrant workers reached 28 6million in 2020.At present,the main force of the migrant worker group is mainly those born in 1980 or later,that is,the new generation of migrant workers.In order to cope with the problems of population aging and insufficient labor supply brought by low birth rate,our country has made efforts to adjust its fertility policy but achieved little progress.The continued low fertility rate may be caused by high housing prices.With rising house prices and high child support costs,h ousing decisions and fertility decisions have become the two most important decisions of the new generation of migrant workers in their family resource allocation.Housing decisions not only has a crowding-out effect on childbirth,but also may have a wealth effect.On the one hand,both housing purchase expenditure and monthly housing expenditure will lead to a reduction in household disposable income,crowding out the consumption of other goods which includes children.This is one of the crowding-out effect of housing on family fertility decisions.On the other hand,when the high economic growth has driven the rapid rise in housing prices,it has also increased the cost of raising children,especially in the case of young couples working together to support the family.The high cost will directly inhibit the family from having two children.This is the second crowding-out effect of housing on family fertility decisions.However,for families with hi gh-quality real estate or many properties,the houses show their investment value.Rising housing prices means an increase in family wealth,which increases their demand for more children.This is the wealth effect of housing on family birth decisions.For a single-family,the overall impact of housing on fertility decisions depends on the comparison of the crowding out effect and the wealth effect.For the whole society,it also depends on the proportion of families affected by these two effects.This paper uses data from the “National Dynamic Monitoring Survey on Health and Family Planning of Floating Population”.Based on the data in 2016,an endogenous conversion Probit model will be established to explore the impact of the new generation of migrant work ers’ housing decisions on their willingness to have two children.It will be discussed from four aspects,personal characteristics,family characteristics,social security conditions,housing prices and real estate factors.Then,the IV Probit model is use d to analyze the impact of housing consumption on the new generation of migrant workers ’ willingness to have two children,who own different numbers of real estate and purchase houses in inflow area or not.The study found that compared with those who did not purchase a house in the inflow area,the willingness to have two children will be significantly increased by 1 6.24% if purchasing a house.The housing consumption of the inflowing house-owners exhibits a wealth effect on the second-child birth,while t he housing consumption of the inflowing non-house-owners exhibits a crowding-out effect on the second-child birth.The inflowing house rent has a c rowding-out effect on the second-child birth,while the inflowing mortgage has a wealth effect on second-child birth.Among house-owners,the willingness to have two children of the families who bought a house in the inflow area was 26.62% higher than those without purchasing a house in the inflow area.Accordingly,in order to build a child ren-friendly society and effectively boost childbirth willingness,this article proposes the following policy implications.First,it is necessary to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market and control the stable operation of housing prices.Second,the government should improve the urban housing security system for the new generation of migrant workers and provide housing allowances to families with two children.Last but not least,it is important to improve the level of nursery care and reduce the cost of childcare for families of childbearing age.