Research On The Impact Of Intergenerational Mobility On Fertility Intention Of Chinese Residents

In recent years,people’s living standards have improved significantly,which is largely due to the development of poverty alleviation.However,the improvement of absolute level has not eliminated the phenomenon of relative poverty.Some scholars have found that the level of intergenerational mobility in China is not high,and there is a problem of class solidification.At the same time,the national fertility policy has been broadened,and the fertility bills of the two sessions have increased significantly compared with previous years,which reflects the indifference of the people’s fertility will.The change of people’s fertility will is inseparable from the change of social structure.Whether the indifference of fertility will is related to the intergenerational mobility of society is a question worth exploring.Therefore,this paper attempts to explore the impact of intergenerational mobility on Residents’ fertility intention,explore whether intergenerational mobility has a significant impact on fertility intention from the individual level and regional level,and further explore the impact mechanism of fertility intention.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation and development trend of residents’ fertility willingness and intergenerational mobility in recent years.Secondly,from the perspective of individual level,this paper takes the intergenerational mobility of income,education and occupation as the core explanatory variables to analyze whether intergenerational mobility has a significant impact on Residents’ reproductive intention.Step 1: choose PSM model to analyze whether there is significant difference in the average treatment effect of upward intergenerational mobility on fertility intention;Step 2: use three core explanatory variables to construct ordered probit model.Thirdly,the impact of intergenerational mobility on fertility intention is analyzed from the regional level.Step 1: construct the intergenerational mobility elasticity coefficient of each province as the core explanatory variable,and supplement the relevant provincial variables as the control variables.Finally,the intermediary effect model is used to analyze whether the two factors of human capital investment and social equity can significantly affect residents’ reproductive intention as part of the intermediary effect.The conclusions are as follows: the PSM model shows that there are significant differences in the average treatment effects of income upward intergenerational mobility and occupation upward intergenerational mobility on Residents’ fertility intention;The results of ordered probit model show that in the impact of intergenerational mobility on Chinese residents’ fertility intention,the impact of income intergenerational mobility and occupational intergenerational mobility on Chinese residents’ fertility intention is significantly positive,while the impact of education intergenerational mobility on Chinese residents’ fertility intention is not significant.On the regional level,the impact of intergenerational mobility and fertility intention is analyzed.It is considered that there is an inverted "U" relationship between regional intergenerational mobility and residents’ fertility intention,that is,there is an inflection point.Before the inflection point,residents’ fertility intention increases with the increase of regional intergenerational mobility,and it is opposite after the inflection point.Heterogeneity analysis found that there are income heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity in the impact of regional intergenerational mobility on Residents’ fertility intention.From the perspective of regional grouping,it is considered that there is an inverted "U" relationship between regional intergenerational mobility and fertility intention in the eastern region.The higher the intergenerational mobility in the non eastern region,the higher the fertility intention.From the perspective of income grouping,the intergenerational mobility of high-income and low-income groups presents an inverted "U" shape.The intergenerational mobility of middle-income people presents a positive "U" shape.The research of intermediary effect model shows that income intergenerational mobility can improve residents’ fertility intention by reducing human capital investment and improving the sense of social equity,occupational intergenerational mobility can improve residents’ fertility intention by increasing the sense of social equity,and regional intergenerational mobility can improve residents’ fertility intention by increasing the sense of social equity.Finally,it summarizes the main research conclusions,puts forward suggestions,points out the shortcomings and prospects for future research.