Research On The Influence Of Basic Endowment Insurance On Residents’ Fertility Intention In China

Since the reform and opening up in 1978,China’s economy has improved rapidly in a short period of time,which can not be separated from the promotion of population advantage.Population advantage is the booster of China’s economic development.Now,due to the continuous decline in the number of new population in China,China’s economic development and social stability have been affected to a certain extent.At present,it is urgent to solve the problems of insufficient population growth momentum and declining fertility desire.To study the reasons for the decline of fertility desire,first of all,we need to find out the influencing factors,because the main purpose of residents’fertility is to raise children for old age,with the continuous improvement of China’s basic old-age insurance system,basic old-age insurance can provide old-age support for residents,to a certain extent,reduce the pressure of residents’ old-age support.The residents’ fertility thought of "raising children for old age" has been impacted to a certain extent,more and more residents no longer rely solely on having children to provide for their old age,and the fertility desire of residents has decreased,which has led to a decline in the number of children.Based on this,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of basic old-age insurance on residents’ fertility desire from the theoretical level,and puts forward the research hypothesis of this paper.And from the empirical level of in-depth analysis,and finally through the analysis of the conclusions,put forward effective suggestions.This paper uses the China General Social Survey Database(CGSS)to conduct the research.Firstly,the five-year survey data are randomly selected as the research object,and "whether residents participate in basic old-age insurance" is set as the explanatory variable,and "residents’fertility desire" is set as the explanatory variable of this paper.In this paper,we mainly choose the number of people who want to have children to evaluate their fertility desire;Secondly,we establish a Poisson regression model to study whether the number of people who want to have children will be affected by the basic old-age insurance and how the effect is,and choose the propensity score matching method and the instrumental variable method to solve the problems of self-selection and reverse causality;Finally,the respondents are grouped according to different regions and different income levels,and the heterogeneity analysis of the impact of basic old-age insurance on the number of children desired by residents is carried out.The results show that:(1)The basic old-age insurance makes the total number of Chinese residents willing to have children decrease,and the number of willing to have daughters(sons)also decreases.Residents who participate in the basic old-age insurance in their youth can enjoy a stable financial support in their old age,that is to say,after participating in the insurance,they can reduce the burden of the old-age pension,so the fertility desire of young people of childbearing age will decline.(2)Through heterogeneity analysis,it is found that the number of children that residents with different income levels want to have will have different results after they participate in the basic old-age insurance.The negative impact of basic old-age insurance on low-income and high-income residents is higher than that on middleincome residents.(3)After participating in the basic old-age insurance,residents in different regions have different declines in the number of children they want to have.The basic old-age insurance has a significant negative impact on the number of desired children of residents in the eastern and central regions;the number of desired children of residents in the western region has also decreased after participating in the basic oldage insurance.This phenomenon is caused by many factors,including the education level of residents,family income,health status,pension expectations and so on.Through research and combing,the following policy recommendations are put forward:first,embed the maternity subsidy mechanism in the old-age insurance;second,play the synergy between the basic old-age insurance and medical insurance;third,establish a multi-level pension system based on the basic old-age insurance;fourth,reduce the pressure of childbirth and improve the protection of women of childbearing age;Fifth,provide policy support for families with more children.