Forecast Of Landside Traffic Demand At Jinan Yaoqiang Airport

In recent years,with the sustained and rapid development of national economy and the rapid development of politics,economy,transportation,tourism and other industries in major cities in China,the volume of air transport business continues to grow,and social development is increasingly dependent on air transport.Air transport industry is gradually becoming a basic and strategic industry for economic and social development.Taking Jinan Yaoqiang airport as the research object,this paper expounds the opportunities and development pattern faced by the airport under the background of the transformation of new and old kinetic energy and the implementation of the national transportation power strategy.Yaoqiang airport is positioned as a hub airport,which is of great strategic significance.As a component of urban transportation system,airport system is closely related to the elements of urban internal transportation system,and its operation is closely related to the development of urban social economy and transportation system.The social and economic conditions are the most critical factor affecting the airport traffic demand,which determines the total external passenger demand of the city;At the same time,the development level of transportation system will also affect the demand of airport landside traffic.Good airport operation requires accurate forecast of airport aviation business volume and landside traffic demand in the future planning year.Referring to the cases of related airports at home and abroad,this paper summarizes the models and methods commonly used in the existing literature,respectively using time series model,market share method,gravity model prediction and regression model to predict the airport passenger throughput.Referring to the research framework of "four stage method",this paper proposes to calculate the airport landside traffic volume through mobile phone signaling data,The mapping relationship between the total land side traffic volume and passenger throughput based on the mobile signaling data is obtained,and then the land side traffic distribution,traffic mode division and the scale of land side traffic facilities are predicted.Considering the influence of high-speed railway,the improvement of city primacy and the expansion of city scale,this paper comprehensively analyzes and forecasts that the passenger throughput range of Jinan Airport in 2025 is 26-36 million person times,and the recommended value is 33 million person times;In 2030,the passenger throughput range is 36-53 million person times,and the recommended value is 50 million person times;In 2035,the passenger throughput range is 48-66 million person times,and the recommended value is 60 million person times.At the end of the paper,some suggestions on the development of Yaoqiang airport are given.