Study On Dynamic Evolution And Driving Factors Of Cultivated Land Pressure In Sichuan Province

In recent years,it has continuously promoted the development of high-quality tourism and strived to build a trillion-grade tourism industry cluster for Sichuan Province,which has become a model for the construction of world-class tourist attractions in China.At the same time,the phenomenon of "Hollow Villages,' is particularly prominent in the whole province.Agricultural labor force has become the mainstream,natural disasters occur frequently,and the effective utilization area of cultivated land is decreasing,which leads to the growing problem of regional food security.Therefore,it is more and more important to study the measurement,dynamic evolution and main driving factors of cultivated land pressure in Sichuan province.This paper mainly analyzes the following aspects:Firstly,it introduces for the concept of cultivated land pressure,the model of cultivated land pressure index and its related theories,and the general situation of Sichuan research area,the utilization of cultivated land resources and the development of social economy are comprehensively analyzed.Secondly,the cultivated land pressure index model is used to measure the cultivated land pressure for the whole Sichuan Province and 21 regions,and the cultivated land quality system is used for revising the measurement results,classify the cultivated land pressure and make regional planning in different regions.Then we use Markov prediction model to predict the cultivated land pressure effectively in different regions from 2018 to 2025.Thirdly,studying the dynamic evolution of cultivated land pressure in Sichuan Province,including temporal change,spatial distribution,fluctuation intensity and agglomeration effect.Then analysis the impact of the main driving factors on the Pressure of Cultivated Land in Sichuan Province.The main driving factors include the transformation of cultivated land use,the upgrading of industrial structure and the rural infrastructure.The main conclusions:Firstly,the pressure of cultivated land is at a medium level on the whole in Sichuan Province.Guangan and Ziyang are in a stress-free state,while Chengdu,Panzhihua and Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture are in a high pressure state.Secondly,it is expected that the pressure of cultivated land will decrease in Sichuan Province and every region from 2018 to 2025,and the pressure of cultivated land will remain high in the major economically developed areas in the next eight years.Thirdly,there are significant differences in the dynamic evolution of cultivated land pressure in different regions of Sichuan Province.The overall trend is downward from 2014 to 2017.The spatial distribution of cultivated land pressure varies greatly in different regions,and its fluctuation intensity changes obviously with time.There is a significant effect of cultivated land pressure concentration in the whole province.Fourthly,the main driving factors of cultivated land pressure have significant differences in different regions of Sichuan Province.Overall,the transformation of arable land use can effectively restrain the pressure of arable land,while the upgrading of industrial structure and urbanization development have significant promoting effects on the pressure of arable land.Therefore,it is suggested to strengthen the transfer of arable land in Western Sichuan,realize the large-scale production of agriculture,rationally optimize the structure of agricultural industry in remote mountainous areas of northeastern Sichuan,improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of arable land,and prevent excessive pressure on arable land.