The Effect Of The Relative Information Adequacy Of The Question On The Reverse Guess Rate

Just as people naturally assess the veracity of the information described in advertisements in life,subjects also make biased guesses about the information presented in the experimental setting.In many series of experiments where subjects were asked to choose from different amounts of money,subjects did not directly accept attributes such as probability and time,but would consider "why this is so".Researchers often ignore the influence of problem sources on decision-making behavior.Some researchers have found through experiments such as simulated sports lottery and two-way auctions that people would rather choose random events than make their own judgments when relative information is lacking.The reason is that the subjects believe that the information they know is asymmetrical with the information known to the game "manipulator".Some researchers have also found in superstition research that when people have insufficient relative information,they will actively create a potential attribute and make choices that appear to be unfavorable to themselves.In this study,we propose that people are more inclined to inversely surmise when relative information is insufficient.We classify people's behaviors according to the easy-to-evaluated clues(attributes)of the problem.A reaction that does not conform to the easy-to-evaluated clues(attributes)is inversely surmise.Based on this,we tested what percentage of individuals would make inverse surmise in the process of making judgments,making choices,and making predictions.The study establishes four sub-dimensions of relative information adequacy through open-ended interviews and scale rating tasks,which are the clarity of question clues,the reasonableness of problem situation description,whether to explain the source of the problem,and whether to prompt the question intent.Four experiments were carried out using self-compiled materials and an improved experimental paradigm design to verify the influence of four variables on the inversely surmise rate,and the chi-square test was used to complete the statistical analysis.In four experiments,we found that: when the problem clues are complex(compared to simple clues),when the problem context description is unreasonable(compared to reasonable context description),when the source of the problem is not stated(compared to state the problem source),when the intent of the question is prompted(compared to the unintentional prompt),participants are more inclined to inversely surmise.Combining the results of qualitative research,we conclude that inversely surmise generally exists in real life and research paradigms;people are more inclined to inversely surmise when the relative information is insufficient.In addition,the research attempts to explore the mechanism of inversely surmise;the research effect of proposing that part of the decision-making "anomalies" may be contributed by inversely surmise.Because people are always more sensitive to the relationship between themselves and the information in the cumbersome information,experimental research considering the relative information sufficiency of the problem will better explore people's true reactions.Future research can focus on the mechanism of inversely surmise in different fields,and provide more research space for the hypothesis of inversely surmise.