An Analysis Of Pillsbury And Shen Dawei's Views On China

Michael Pillsbury and David Shambaugh are famous American experts on China.Their views on China have extensive influence in American policy and academic fileds.However,different from other experts who have always held a tough or moderate stance towards China,Michael Pillsbury and David Shambaugh's views on China have undergone rapid changes from a moderate attitude to a tough one.Given the important role of the U.S.strategic community in the formation of the American's China policy,especially at the moment when the strategic competition between China and the U.S.is becoming increasingly fierce,it is particularly necessary for China to follow up the research trends of the well-known experts on China in the U.S.strategic community,especially their main views related to China,so as to predict the changes of the American's China policy and make corresponding policy preparations.This paper consists of three chapters.The first chapter mainly introduces Michael Pillsbury and David Shambaugh's personal life,academic career and main research achievements,so as to better clarify their research ideas,and on this basis to more fully understand and grasp their views of China.The second chapter focuses on the detailed process and performance of the transformation of Michael Pillsbury's view of China.In the 1970 s,Michael Pillsbury actively advocated promoting Sino-U.S.military cooperation,but in the 1990 s,he began to exaggerate the "China Threat Theory" and advocate the "China Conspiracy Theory".This chapter further analyzes the causes of the two kinds of misconceptions about China.The third chapter analyzes the process and performance of the transformation of David Shambaugh's view of China.For a long time,David Shambaugh has been actively advocating contacts with China,refuting the "China Threat Theory" and taking a positive view of the administration prospect of the Communist Party of China.Therefore,he is regarded as a "Panda Hugger" by the outside world.However,David Shambaugh has unexpectedly put forward the "China Collapse Theory" since 2008,and in recent years,he has advocated all-round competition with China.This chapter also analyzes the causes of the "China Collapse Theory".The conclusion part summarizes the specific reasons for the changes of Michael Pillsbury and David Shambaugh's views on China.By studying the works of Michael Pillsbury and David Shambaugh,there are profound reasons for the changes of their views of China in the international system,domestic politics and cognition.Michael Pillsbury viewed Sino-U.S.relations from the perspective of realistic balance of power,while David Shambaugh insisted on the friendship with China under the leadership of American hegemony,which is also the difference between the two views on China.Although there are some limitations in their views of China,the analysis is helpful to understand the cognitive bias of American policy-makers towards China,so as to improve the relationship between the two countries.