An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Demographic Structure On The Development Of Commercial Health Insurance

With the rapid development of the national economy and the transformation of the fertility policy,China's population structure has undergone major changes.Factors such as aging,fewer children,urbanization,rising divorce rate and the reduction of family members affect all aspects of social developments.Meanwhile,as an important part of China's medical security system,commercial health insurance has been developing rapidly in recent years.From 2008 to 2018,the compound annual growth rate of the premium income of commercial health insurance in China was as high as25%,ranking the first among all kinds of insurance.This paper is an empirical analysis of the demand for commercial health insurance from the perspective of population structure.On this basis,this paper selects the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2011 to 2017,and studies the impact of population structure and other relevant factors on the development of China's commercial health insurance market through static panel model and dynamic panel model.The empirical results show that population aging,urbanization growth rate and divorce rate have a significant promoting effect on the development of commercial health insurance,and are stable in many regression models,while the decrease of family population has a significant negative impact on the development of commercial health insurance.However,the trend of fewer children and the siphon effect of population brought by big cities have no significant influence on the demand for commercial health insurance.In addition,it is also found in some models that the increase of the proportion of women in the population over 15 years old and the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry also significantly promotes the demand for health insurance.On the basis of the above empirical results,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions from the level of insurance companies and government.The first chapter of this paper is the introduction,which respectively expounds the research background and meaning,research ideas and framework,innovation of this paper,and systematically summarizes relevant literatures at home and abroad.The second chapter is the current development status of China's commercial health insurance.It mainly introduces the characteristics and functions of commercial health insurance,the four stages of China's health insurance development,the current status and related issues.The third chapter is the transformation of China's population structure including describing the six stages of population development since the founding of the People's Republic of China,and analyzing the reasons for the development and transformation of the population structure and its current trend.Chapter four and chapter five are the core parts of this paper.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of demographic factors on the development of commercial health insurance.This chapter mainly introduces data sources,empirical models,variable descriptions and empirical results analysis.The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestions,which are put forward from the perspective of insurance company and government respectively.